From todays Bangkok Post online...
The statistical profile of Thailand's visitor arrivals in 2007, just made public, clearly indicates six major trends that will affect existing and future marketing and development plans.
The final arrivals figure for 2007 by country of residence, a far more important indicator of travel trends than country of nationality, totalled 14,464,228, up 4.65% from 13,821,802 in 2006.
Based on the sheer volume, this is a more than acceptable growth rate. But buried within the figures are these six clear trend indicators:
- Arrivals from each of Thailand's six most important source markets fell en masse: Malaysia, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Together, these six markets along generate 40% of Thailand's visitor arrivals.
Most of the decline was in the first half of 2007 in the lingering aftermath of the September 2006 military coup. Although markets such as China recovered rapidly in the second half of 2007, the damage done in the first half was enough to end the year in red figures.
Arrivals from Malaysia were down slightly, largely due to the situation in southern Thailand. Japan has seen a broad slump in outbound travel that has also affected other destinations such as Australia and New Zealand.
- Partly compensating for the declines was the emergence of new markets such as Russia (+46%), Eastern Europe (+37%), Finland (+23%) and India (+17%). The most surprising growth was a phenomenal +84% spurt in arrivals from Laos to a total of 521,062.
This rapid growth is off a small base, however, and in terms of overall volume, these "new markets" pale against the total arrivals from major source markets.
- In terms of demographics, there was a lopsided 10% decline in women visitors but 14.8% growth in male visitors.
The fall in women visitors was nearly right across the board, especially from major markets such as Japan (-26%), China (-18%), Germany (-11%), Malaysia (-12%) and the UK (-17%). Even India and the U.S. were down by 7% and 16% respectively.
This decline defies explanation, especially because the Tourism Authority of Thailand has invested heavily in marketing to women by promoting shopping, health and wellness and honeymoon holidays.
Had the decline been concentrated in a few specific markets, identifying a common cause would have been easy. The fact that it struck a multiplicity of markets in Europe, Asia, North America and the Middle East demands more introspective research and analysis.
- Visitors at both ends of the age spectrum, young and old, are up significantly. Total visitors aged 15-24 were up 8% to 1.55 million and those aged 25-34 were up 6% to 3.8 million. Those aged 55-64 rose 5% to 1.66 million and there was 11% growth to just under 600,000 in the 65-plus segment.
Together, these four age segments now comprise a total of 7.6 million arrivals, or roughly half the total. It is the 35-54 age segment that is stagnant. However, it clearly means continued growth prospects amongst the backpackers and retirees.
- Another big surprise was a 29% fall in delegates who identified themselves on their arrival/departure cards as coming to attend conventions. As the Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau has spent heaps of money to attract conventions and delegates, and so have the many new convention centres, this decline was quite unexpected.
Significant declines were seen across Asia, Europe, the Americas and the Middle East. Although the actual base figures are small, convention delegates are usually high spenders, making this decline doubly significant in terms of economic value.
However, business travellers remained strong, up 5.9% to 1.26 million.
- Finally, there was a sharp growth of 13.7% in first-time visitors to 5.6 million and a fractional decline of 0.46% in repeat visitors to 8.8 million.
This is extremely encouraging because it shows that Thailand continues to attract "new" visitors, even from those markets that reported an overall drop, such as Japan, Korea and Hong Kong.
An eye-opening statistic was the 131% increase in first-time visitors from Laos to 67,346, clearly indicating that as Thailand's neighbour to the north makes economic progress, and its people acquire both the desire and the means to travel, crossing the border to Thailand is their first step.
Also showing strong growth in first-time visitors were Europe (+33%), the United States (+10%) and India (+33%). The 39% growth in first-time arrivals from Australia was also a strong indicator of better things to come from that market.
These arrival trends are the result of many factors, such as the growth in low-cost airlines, the explosion in direct on-line booking facilities, promotion of intra-regional travel, the global boom in youth travel, and other factors.
In the absence of any geopolitical or economic calamity, the arrivals target of 15.7 million this year should be attainable.
Imtiaz Muqbil is executive editor of Travel Impact Newswire, an e-mailed feature and analysis service focusing on the Asia-Pacific travel industry.
Comment: May be useful to some tourist facing business owners out there.....
Statistics underline new tourism trends
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sandman67
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Statistics underline new tourism trends
"Science flew men to the moon. Religion flew men into buildings."
"To sin by silence makes cowards of men."
"To sin by silence makes cowards of men."
These figures are largely propaganda and BS, the TAT make them up as they go along and include visa runners and other erroneous stats, speak to anyone with a tourism based business and any hotelier and they'll tell you the truth about this season.
That said it looks like TAT are targeting Asians more and Hua Hin doesnt seem to be a big destination for them. Maybe TAT are getting fed up with farangs!
That said it looks like TAT are targeting Asians more and Hua Hin doesnt seem to be a big destination for them. Maybe TAT are getting fed up with farangs!
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Also heard from several sources that occupancy of top hotels is down and are forecasting a real nosedive during the next high season
RICHARD OF LOXLEY
It’s none of my business what people say and think of me. I am what I am and do what I do. I expect nothing and accept everything. It makes life so much easier.
It’s none of my business what people say and think of me. I am what I am and do what I do. I expect nothing and accept everything. It makes life so much easier.
]The point was made earlier on that a visa runner, so 12 times a year, could have been counted as 12 people.
OK, the law has changed, but there are plenty of people who are doing 3x30 day runs and then getting a Tourist visa for 60 days+30.
So that's the same person into Thailand 4 times in 6 months?
OK, the law has changed, but there are plenty of people who are doing 3x30 day runs and then getting a Tourist visa for 60 days+30.
So that's the same person into Thailand 4 times in 6 months?
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JimboPSM
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buksida wrote:These figures are largely propaganda and BS, the TAT make them up as they go along and include visa runners and other erroneous stats, speak to anyone with a tourism based business and any hotelier and they'll tell you the truth about this season.
Having spent a fair bit of time in Udon Thani, Bangkok, Hua Hin & Pattaya over the last six months I've been wondering where all the supposed visitors are staying and where they are going in the evenings.
A few months ago TAT made a statement aboout the increase in tourists and the same week THA (Hotel operators) made a statement that occupancy rates were down
- is it possible that someone is telling porky pies 
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Wanderlust
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The figures as buksi said are based on the TM cards we all fill in when we arrive, so when you think about it, that not only includes all the visa runners, but also any Malaysians who hop over the border in the south to get supplies/go whoring/whatever, and probably also includes people who work or have a business in Thailand legally but live in Malaysia/Myanmar/Cambodia/Laos and hop over the border every day. I don't know if these numbers would be statistically significant or not, but I would guess they are. The other thing in doubt would be how efficiently the data is input from all those cards. I am also beginning to wonder how many people actually fill in their annual income correctly for the Thai government to base any tourist policy on?
I am only observing with my eyes and I'm certainly no expert, but I'd like to suggest another viewpoint regarding low business for hotels.
Just for example, if you have (say) 10 small hotels in town, with an average of 10 rooms per hotel and they manage to get an average 80% occupancy, then a few years later you have 70 small hotels in town with only 50% occupancy, isn't the reason over supply of hotels rather than under supply of tourists? In my example, the 10 hotels cater for 80 customers and the 70 hotels cater for 350 customers but although the customers have risen by more than 400%, occupancy is down roughly 40%.
I suspect this is a big reason why businesses in general are taking the pinch. Its not the fact tourism has gone down that makes it difficult for small hotels and businesses, its too much competition. I see the Hua Hin streets littered with people compared with how they looked a few years ago. But theres also much more bars, hotels, restaurants etc. so statistics comparing business from previous years has to take into account the extra competition.
Just for example, if you have (say) 10 small hotels in town, with an average of 10 rooms per hotel and they manage to get an average 80% occupancy, then a few years later you have 70 small hotels in town with only 50% occupancy, isn't the reason over supply of hotels rather than under supply of tourists? In my example, the 10 hotels cater for 80 customers and the 70 hotels cater for 350 customers but although the customers have risen by more than 400%, occupancy is down roughly 40%.
I suspect this is a big reason why businesses in general are taking the pinch. Its not the fact tourism has gone down that makes it difficult for small hotels and businesses, its too much competition. I see the Hua Hin streets littered with people compared with how they looked a few years ago. But theres also much more bars, hotels, restaurants etc. so statistics comparing business from previous years has to take into account the extra competition.
Thats a possibility but other businesses such as tour operators, golf courses, restaurants and the like have still felt the pinch this year. Additionally I've noticed the high season to be a lot shorter than usual and definitely less "foot traffic" in town compared to previous years.
Plus if Asian tourist numbers are up they certainly don't come to Hua Hin.
I think TAT are just blowing their own trumpets again in order to get a fatter slice of the annual budget.
Plus if Asian tourist numbers are up they certainly don't come to Hua Hin.
I think TAT are just blowing their own trumpets again in order to get a fatter slice of the annual budget.
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
I'd agree with you about the competition aspect, Jockey, but as has been said before these figures are supposed to be scientific, based on TM cards.
It's difficult to judge numbers simply by eyesight and business owners' comments, although they will always be a reasonable guide.
HH has been promoting itself as one of the "elite" resorts in Thailand for ages. However, the well-heeled tourist will take note of travel warnings and are likely to stay away due to media attention on coups, corruption, rapes, murders, violence in the south (how many first time tourists believe that HH is in the south?) and so on.
Backpackers will not be so easily put off, so streets can seem busy, but there's not a lot of money being spent (I'm not having a go at backpackers, BTW. I was one for decades). Hence, the top end hotels, the best restaurants, the golf courses are maybe suffering?
Income on the TM card? One time, an Imm Officer at Ranong asked me why I hadn't filled that back portion out. I pointed out - politely - that it was just a market research document for TAT and therefore was really no business of anyones'. I was only coming in for a 90 day entry on my multi Non O, not applying for an annual extension when my income/savings could quite rightly be called into question (other than having 10-20k Baht on you, but that's never checked). The officer asked whether he could tick one of the higher income boxes. I said it was up to him. Recently, I've never filled that part in and have never been pulled on it. People, including myself, are prone to exaggerate
It's difficult to judge numbers simply by eyesight and business owners' comments, although they will always be a reasonable guide.
HH has been promoting itself as one of the "elite" resorts in Thailand for ages. However, the well-heeled tourist will take note of travel warnings and are likely to stay away due to media attention on coups, corruption, rapes, murders, violence in the south (how many first time tourists believe that HH is in the south?) and so on.
Backpackers will not be so easily put off, so streets can seem busy, but there's not a lot of money being spent (I'm not having a go at backpackers, BTW. I was one for decades). Hence, the top end hotels, the best restaurants, the golf courses are maybe suffering?
Income on the TM card? One time, an Imm Officer at Ranong asked me why I hadn't filled that back portion out. I pointed out - politely - that it was just a market research document for TAT and therefore was really no business of anyones'. I was only coming in for a 90 day entry on my multi Non O, not applying for an annual extension when my income/savings could quite rightly be called into question (other than having 10-20k Baht on you, but that's never checked). The officer asked whether he could tick one of the higher income boxes. I said it was up to him. Recently, I've never filled that part in and have never been pulled on it. People, including myself, are prone to exaggerate