Global Warming/Climate Change 2

[STEVE G]

Researchers receive $80 billion a year just from Obama.

According to the White House, the budget for 2014 is $2.7 billion.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default ... limate.pdf

[dtaai-maai]

How can the public make an informed decision when we are subjected to such totally opposite conclusions?

Yep, have to agree there.
But I'm sure Mr P has an explanation for how he has reached his informed decision.

[STEVE G]

How can the public make an informed decision when we are subjected to such totally opposite conclusions?

And now you get oil billionaires trying to buy up newspapers:

Koch Confirms Interest in Acquiring Newspapers .
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 74062.html

[MrPlum]

According to the White House, the budget for 2014 is $2.7 billion.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default ... limate.pdf

Thanks for the correction. Can't find the source but I recall an $80 billion pledge a few years back. Never mind. The basic point is still valid. You get the results you pay for.

But I'm sure Mr P has an explanation for how he has reached his informed decision.

What a petty man you are.

I've said several times the social, financial and political aspects are far easier to assess.

[Dannie Boy]

This was taken from the BBC website:

The Earth experienced unprecedented recorded climate extremes during the decade 2001-2010, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.

Its new report says more national temperature records were reported broken than in previous decades.

There was an increase in deaths from heatwaves over that decade.

This was particularly pronounced during the extreme summers in Europe in 2003 and in the Russian Federation during 2010.

But despite the decade being the second wettest since 1901 (with 2010 the wettest year recorded) fewer people died from floods than in the previous decade.

Better warning systems and increased preparedness take much of the credit for the reduced deaths. The WMO says smarter climate information will be needed as the climate continues to change.

Its report, The Global Climate 2001-2010, A Decade of Climate Extremes, analysed global and regional trends, as well as extreme events such as Hurricane Katrina, floods in Pakistan and droughts in the Amazon, Australia and East Africa.

The decade was the warmest for both hemispheres and for both land and ocean surface temperatures. The record warmth was accompanied by a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice, and accelerating loss of mass from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and from glaciers.

Global mean sea levels rose about 3mm per year - about double the observed 20th century trend of 1.6mm per year. Global sea level averaged over the decade was about 20cm higher than in 1880.

The report notes that the high temperatures in the decade were achieved without a strong episode of the El Nino current which typically warms the world. It says that a strong El Nino episode would probably have driven temperatures even higher.

Although overall temperature rise has slowed down since the 1990s, the WMO says temperatures are still rising because of greenhouse gases from human society.

The WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said: “Natural climate variability, caused in part by interactions between our atmosphere and oceans means that some years are cooler than others. On an annual basis, the global temperature curve is not a smooth one. On a long-term basis the underlying trend is clearly in an upward direction, more so in recent times.”

But climate change doubters emphasise the lack of movement in temperatures throughout the decade.

Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), told BBC News that the issue hinged on the time frame.

“For longer periods (two decades or longer) we found a robust and a statistically significant warming trend,” he said. For shorter periods - a decade or less - there is no longer a significant temperature trend of either sign, consistent with the reports of a recent 'plateauing' of global temperatures.”

Even so, many climate scientists are alarmed by the consistently high temperatures during the decade. Every year of the decade except 2008 was among the 10 warmest on record.

The warmest year ever recorded was 2010, with a temperature estimated at 0.54C above the 14.0C long-term average of 1961-1990 base period, followed closely by 2005.

Greenland recorded the largest decadal temperature anomaly, +1.71C above the long-term average and with a temperature in 2010 of +3.2C above average. Africa experienced warmer than normal conditions in every year of the decade.

Results from WMO’s survey showed that nearly 94% of reporting countries had their warmest decade in 2001-2010. No country reported a nationwide average decadal temperature cooler than the long term average.

Comment: Seems to indicate a disturbing pattern!!

[dtaai-maai]

But I'm sure Mr P has an explanation for how he has reached his informed decision.

What a petty man you are.

Mr Plum. For all that I don't agree with much of what you say and frequently with the way you say it, I don't call you names or insult you. You do both to a number of people more and more frequently.
Please don't.


Does calling someone petty on a forum constitute libel under Thai law? Even if it's true?

[MrPlum]

For all that I don't agree with much of what you say and frequently with the way you say it, I don't call you names or insult you. You do both to a number of people more and more frequently.
Please don't.

Besides sarge and SJ, my responses are no different to many others on the forum. Since I have now disengaged from both, peace can hopefully prevail. As for you. Since you have shown no real interest in topics that I participate in, except to make your regular trite personal 'observations', or act as some self-appointed forum QC Inspector, I see no merit in your complaint. The icons you used and the tone of your post were provocative.

Please stop it. It IS petty.

[MrPlum]

This was taken from the BBC website:

The Earth experienced unprecedented recorded climate extremes during the decade 2001-2010, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.

Who also say... “it is not yet possible to attribute individual extremes to climate change,” and "Distinguishing between natural climate variability and human-induced climate change will also require datasets that are more complete and long-term."

Comment: Seems to indicate a disturbing pattern!!

You can say that again. 20 years of alarmism with no end in sight.

[Bristolian]

If the Earth experienced unprecedented recorded climate extremes during the last decade I would also call that seriously alarming!

It is not yet possible to attribute individual extremes to climate change and distinguish between natural climate variability and human-induced climate change, is equally alarming!

When alarm bells ring you should sit up and take notice. GW remains a fact, like it or not, certainly not fully understood and therefore not fully explainable but alarming none the less.

[MrPlum]

If the Earth experienced unprecedented recorded climate extremes during the last decade I would also call that seriously alarming!

Even if true, where is it leading?

'Climate Action Tracker' states.. 'National action on climate change mitigation appears to be joining the international climate negotiations in the new and ever popular “climate shuffle” dance. It involves maximum effort and motion while staying in the same spot…or even, in some cases, going backwards.'

http://climateactiontracker.org/publica ... rming.html

'Recent emissions trends and estimates of the effects of those policies, in place and proposed, lead to a new estimate that warming is likely to approach 4°C by 2100'

Quick! Run for the vineyards!

When alarm bells ring you should sit up and take notice.

Until reality bites. Energy needs have been given priority over climate fears by the EU who just kicked the can down the road to 2020.

[STEVE G]

At least there is a bit of hope on the horizon:

Renewables to surpass gas by 2016 in the global power mix
http://iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressr ... 56,en.html

"The forecasts in the report build on the impressive growth registered in 2012, when global renewable generation rose by over 8% despite a challenging investment, policy and industry context in some areas. In absolute terms, global renewable generation in 2012 – at 4 860 TWh – exceeded the total estimated electricity consumption of China."

It doesn't seem that difficult to change things, particularly when you have oil trading at about $100 a barrel for extended periods.

[sargeant]

Renewable s to surpass gas by 2016 in the global power mix

A quote that misses out telling how much coal and oil and the %age of the whole worlds consumption power wise renewable s actually provide
in other words it is a disingenuous peace of reporting stating a truth but leaving out the pertinent facts ie coal and oil consumption

[STEVE G]

A quote that misses out telling how much coal and oil and the %age of the whole worlds consumption power wise renewable s actually provide
in other words it is a disingenuous peace of reporting stating a truth but leaving out the pertinent facts ie coal and oil consumption

If you read the article:
"Renewables are now the fastest-growing power generation sector and will make up almost a quarter of the global power mix by 2018, up from an estimated 20% in 2011."

If we can manage a quarter within five years without bancrupting the world, why not go the whole way?
One factor to be taken into consideration is that the cost is usually compared against existing generating capacity but in parts of the world where there isn't any, renewables make much more sense. Another point is that renewables can be costed for many years ahead whereas no one can realistically tell you what oil might cost in 20 years time.

[sargeant]

will make up almost a quarter of the global power mix by 2018, up from an estimated 20% in 2011.

I will check my maths again if you insist but i make that 7 years and the increase was 5% over the 7 years
That 2011 estimate being the start point of 20%

It does not say how many years prior to 2011 it took to get to the 20% figure

If we can manage a quarter within five years without bancrupting the world,

It also does not say that coal and oil burning (ie the whole banana lots of cherry picking but no bananas) has increased or by how much total power consumption has increased

in other words the amount of CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere is still growing year on year

[sargeant]

Ok a couple of days so i will presume my maths are correct just to add the 2011 20% was an ESTIMATE as was the 2018 figure as we have seen almost all estimates / forecast on this subject have to be revised downward i therefore wont take a lot of notice.

Cutting coal and oil emissions plus Renewables solar and wind and wave the holy saviours of GW sounds great except it is a false belief.As Steve has pointed out the CO2 that has been added to the atmosphere was sequestered and locked up millions of years ago. As it is this excess CO2 that is already up there in the atmosphere causing the warming and as none of the renewables or cuts remove not a single solitary molecule of the excess CO2 it is a lost cause. Until and not untill someone can come up with a way to remove the excess CO2 from the atmosphere and lock it away the earth will continue warming come what may