Wanderlust wrote:Big Boy,
While I agree with your concept of learning from the past and preparing for good and bad times, I don't agree that you could have predicted the current situation if, as I did, you moved here 10 years ago, or even 3 years ago; all you could say is that at some point in the future things are likely to change. Given that a couple of years prior to my arrival in Thailand the pound/baht rate had been at 90, I think it could have been reasonable to assume that the rate of 60 when I arrived was actually a bad time for the pound; I didn't make that assumption but I certainly never envisaged the banks making such a monumental cock up of the western world's economy either. I still think this will still only be a blip, if rather a long one, and that at some point in the next year the baht will weaken and the pound get stronger and I really don't believe it will ever hit the low you are referring to from the past. I don't think having such a strong currency is any help to Thailand at all because as well as making their exports more expensive, it also causes companies to defer or even cancel planned moves to the country, such as manufacturing or assembly operations, because the set up becomes more expensive. Any country whose currency is too strong suffers more unemployment and unused capacity and deflation unless they are completely insular, although the possible upside is that imports become cheaper.
Don't get me wrong, if I had been granted my early retirement when I requested it, I'd have been planning on 70 Baht to the Pound as well, because it's what I wanted to believe.
However, I would have been very foolish. All that I'm saying is if you're planning to move somewhere for at least X number of years, you should take retrospective currency fluctuations in to account for a similar period (yes, very easy in hindsight).
If you only look at recent 'boom' times, you are almost certainly going to come a cropper. Boom times usually come to an end, and to me, anything over 40 Baht to the Pound is boom time.
As for the bits about, "
I don't think having such a strong currency is any help to Thailand at all because as well as making their exports more expensive, it also causes companies to defer or even cancel planned moves to the country, such as manufacturing or assembly operations, because the set up becomes more expensive. Any country whose currency is too strong suffers more unemployment and unused capacity and deflation unless they are completely insular, although the possible upside is that imports become cheaper," statement, I'm sorry, but
I've been reading that for years on this Forum. I used believe that it made common sense once, and used to preach that it had to happen. Unfortunately TIT, and I no longer believe there is any desire to weaken the Baht.
........... won't it?
