May I suggest you change your monika to Rip van Winkel?malcolminthemiddle wrote:Wake me up when it gets to 70.
GBP vs THB
I read a report yesterday that discussed the pound / euro. The pound has taken off against the dollar and is expected to make gains against the euro shortly. The article was about the crap UK weather and whether a rising pound will see a load of Brits chase the better weather in europe.
Cannot see any Govt. seeking to join the euro in the foreseeable future - cost of doing so is against it apart from the fact there is no political will or public desire.
Cannot see any Govt. seeking to join the euro in the foreseeable future - cost of doing so is against it apart from the fact there is no political will or public desire.
Last edited by caller on Sat Aug 08, 2009 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Talk is cheap
I can see the pound/bt being 60-62 by the end of the year which is great except for the fact that I've promised to build a house if it goes over sixty and I wasn't expecting it to happen that soon!
When I was in Luxembourg a few months ago, I met someone from the British Embassy (by accident, I don't live in those circles) and when I asked him about the chance of the UK joining the euro, he said "Not in the next ten years!" in a loud booming voice that suggested it wasn't very likely after that either.
When I was in Luxembourg a few months ago, I met someone from the British Embassy (by accident, I don't live in those circles) and when I asked him about the chance of the UK joining the euro, he said "Not in the next ten years!" in a loud booming voice that suggested it wasn't very likely after that either.
Its interesting that the Bank of England pumped a heap more money into the economy the other day and warned everything is still fragile, yet when Lloyds TSB announced huge losses, their share price rose by 13% - it seems they're viewed as being in a good position!Super Joe wrote:I reckon it'll strengthen a lot when the UK starts coming out of it's recession.
SJ
It now seems clear that property prices have levelled out, sales are up, as are prices by a small margin (sorry doom mongers expecting further big hits) and its pretty obvious that would increase if folk could find someone to lend them money!
Unemployment, although bad, hasn't taken off as people were expecting and manufacturing is up - seems the first seeds are already there although it might take another couple of years to see real improvement.
Talk is cheap
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... -warn.html
caller,
i think that I'm a doom monger in your opinion. i prefer to think that i have a balanced view on the U.K. economy. have a look at the link from the daily Telegraph. why do you think that the B.O.E. are continuing with Q.E ???
house prices have stabilized due to a shortage of properties for sale. just wait till next year. a conservative government, the knife taken to public spending, increased tax and interest rate rises. did you know 400,000 reposed properties are forecast for 20011.? i nearly forgot to mention the restricted lending by banks.
imo house prices have another 25% to fall and could easily exceed this figure. I'm sure you don't agree with me, but before you call me a doom monger have a look at what the I.M.F. are saying about the U.K. housing market.
miked
caller,
i think that I'm a doom monger in your opinion. i prefer to think that i have a balanced view on the U.K. economy. have a look at the link from the daily Telegraph. why do you think that the B.O.E. are continuing with Q.E ???
house prices have stabilized due to a shortage of properties for sale. just wait till next year. a conservative government, the knife taken to public spending, increased tax and interest rate rises. did you know 400,000 reposed properties are forecast for 20011.? i nearly forgot to mention the restricted lending by banks.
imo house prices have another 25% to fall and could easily exceed this figure. I'm sure you don't agree with me, but before you call me a doom monger have a look at what the I.M.F. are saying about the U.K. housing market.
miked
To support Miked's post, another snippet from the Telegraph which seems to justify being a Balanced Viewing Doom Monger,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... ckons.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... ckons.html
"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and then again I just sits" Punch 24th Oct 1906
For sure there will be differing views and ultimately only time will tell. But the Tories are also planning some tax cuts - or at least zero increases - such as in Council Tax. Everyone knows its going to be tight and Brown has been humilated with his assertion that Labour would increase spending - spend what, thin air?
A big factor is if any changes are made to get house building started again - as its virtually died out and there remains an acute shortage of housing. Little point buidling if folk can't get a mortgage to buy whats built, even if affordable.
Be intersting to see what effect any change of Govt. might have in next years UK elections?
A big factor is if any changes are made to get house building started again - as its virtually died out and there remains an acute shortage of housing. Little point buidling if folk can't get a mortgage to buy whats built, even if affordable.
Be intersting to see what effect any change of Govt. might have in next years UK elections?
Talk is cheap
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loverboy44
- Specialist
- Posts: 148
- Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2008 8:44 pm
Giving out credits too easily is the main reason for the crisis both in the US, UK and Spain.
This resulted in house prices that were artificially pushed up far too high, so that the bubble bursted.
Shortly before the crisis they gave credits to people in the US that didn't even had a regular job.
This problem doesn't exist for example in Germany where you need at least a third of the credit ammount before you get any mortgage.
This will be taken over by the UK now so unfortunately the younger ones have to build up cash first before they get a mortgage.
This will take years.
The crazy thing is that there is an international agreement called Basel 2 that all the above mentioned countries signed but not all practically fulfilled.
So in my opinion and coming back to the original Baht/GBP debate the Pound will rise when the people get mortgages again. Not before.
This resulted in house prices that were artificially pushed up far too high, so that the bubble bursted.
Shortly before the crisis they gave credits to people in the US that didn't even had a regular job.
This problem doesn't exist for example in Germany where you need at least a third of the credit ammount before you get any mortgage.
This will be taken over by the UK now so unfortunately the younger ones have to build up cash first before they get a mortgage.
This will take years.
The crazy thing is that there is an international agreement called Basel 2 that all the above mentioned countries signed but not all practically fulfilled.
So in my opinion and coming back to the original Baht/GBP debate the Pound will rise when the people get mortgages again. Not before.
Some places did that in the UK too on a scheme called self-certification i.e lies, where a so-called broker acted as the middle man. I wonder if any research has been done to show what % of de-faulters come from this group.loverboy44 wrote:Shortly before the crisis they gave credits to people in the US that didn't even had a regular job.
Miked, I agree about an axe falling, but in Govt/local Govt. the Tories don't need to do it, its already being planned as they will be starved of funds based on current forecasts. Most local authorities have already laid staff off and numbers will increase over the next few years once alternative ways of providing services, many statutory, have been worked out. Some forecasters estimate a cull of 20%
Talk is cheap
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JimboPSM
- Specialist
- Posts: 159
- Joined: Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:38 pm
- Location: Isle of Man, Udon Thani & HH
I find it easier to understand the movements between the GBP & THB by looking at the separate movements of GBP/USD and USD/THB; which can best be described by this equation:
Quite a number of politicians, political and financial commentators are now using the luxury of hindsight to further their political agendas by nitpicking at the measures undertaken and distorting what the central banks achieved – a pity these folk failed to use their undoubted economic expertise to prevent it in the first place or at least to have provided some warning before the stuff that helps roses grow hit the fan.
Sadly I don’t believe that the GBP will return to the halcyon levels it enjoyed before the crash - this is because of a fundamental difference between the banking losses in the UK and those in the US.
A large proportion of the UK banking losses were due to the UK banks using real money (from the UK economy) to buy worthless US paper from the US banks – the impact of this was a real cash loss of billions to the UK economy and a real cash gain of those same billions to the US economy.
This has resulted in a permanent comparative value shift between the economies which cannot be reversed – in other words, in the recent banking meltdown the UK banks (and economy) have subsidised the losses of the US banks.
This also applies to all those other countries (and economies) that were gullible enough to buy the worthless US paper – incidentally Thailand has almost no direct exposure to toxic US paper despite the most rigorous efforts of the US banking industry over the last decade or so to gain access to Thai markets.
Unfortunately for the UK & other countries (with equally gullible and greedy bankers), in their haste to get their snouts into the trough, their bankers were so massively incompetent that they failed to insert any substantive protections into the contracts which would realistically enable them to pursue recovery of the real money they lost through the courts.
The impact of this is (with all other things being equal) that the GBP and the currencies of other countries (that bought the worthless US paper) will not return to the previous levels that they had against the USD.
- GBP/THB = GBP/USD x USD/THB
Quite a number of politicians, political and financial commentators are now using the luxury of hindsight to further their political agendas by nitpicking at the measures undertaken and distorting what the central banks achieved – a pity these folk failed to use their undoubted economic expertise to prevent it in the first place or at least to have provided some warning before the stuff that helps roses grow hit the fan.
Sadly I don’t believe that the GBP will return to the halcyon levels it enjoyed before the crash - this is because of a fundamental difference between the banking losses in the UK and those in the US.
A large proportion of the UK banking losses were due to the UK banks using real money (from the UK economy) to buy worthless US paper from the US banks – the impact of this was a real cash loss of billions to the UK economy and a real cash gain of those same billions to the US economy.
This has resulted in a permanent comparative value shift between the economies which cannot be reversed – in other words, in the recent banking meltdown the UK banks (and economy) have subsidised the losses of the US banks.
This also applies to all those other countries (and economies) that were gullible enough to buy the worthless US paper – incidentally Thailand has almost no direct exposure to toxic US paper despite the most rigorous efforts of the US banking industry over the last decade or so to gain access to Thai markets.
Unfortunately for the UK & other countries (with equally gullible and greedy bankers), in their haste to get their snouts into the trough, their bankers were so massively incompetent that they failed to insert any substantive protections into the contracts which would realistically enable them to pursue recovery of the real money they lost through the courts.
The impact of this is (with all other things being equal) that the GBP and the currencies of other countries (that bought the worthless US paper) will not return to the previous levels that they had against the USD.