cookmanchef
i think i had a panic reaction to the fall of sterling, partly due to the markets pricing in a 50 basis point reduction. i now am with you and think they will cut. sterling seems to have made a modest recovery, lets hope we are near the bottom.
my problem is that cheap and easy credit has caused a good deal of this problem and yet we seem to be returning to that.miked
GBP vs THB
-
cookmanchef
- Professional
- Posts: 280
- Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:43 am
GBP vs THB
The first thing I would do is sack Mervyn king, utterly incompetent. Whilst usually interest rates have a major bearing on currency value, that seems not to be so in these exceptional times, (US 1.5%, Japan 0.5% and they are soaring).
UK now needs to show firm and decisive action and cut by 2-3%. After a short term panic reaction it would be seen as bold leadership and a shot in the arm for business.
UK now needs to show firm and decisive action and cut by 2-3%. After a short term panic reaction it would be seen as bold leadership and a shot in the arm for business.
-
margaretcarnes
- Rock Star
- Posts: 4172
- Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:28 am
- Location: The Rhubarb Triangle
GBP vs Thai Baht
Miked made some good points on the last page which don't seem to have hit home yet.
1) Will expats be forced to return home? Fixed income from abroad at reduced baht buying power equals less baht. Maybe in some cases reducing the expat income to below the visa requirement.
2) Will house prices in LOS be affected? Common sense would say yes. But common sense also tells us that as tourism drops, prices go up to 'compensate'! Left with unsaleble houses I think Thai logic and Sabai Sabai will prevail. The houses will stand empty until financial confidence returns.
1) Will expats be forced to return home? Fixed income from abroad at reduced baht buying power equals less baht. Maybe in some cases reducing the expat income to below the visa requirement.
2) Will house prices in LOS be affected? Common sense would say yes. But common sense also tells us that as tourism drops, prices go up to 'compensate'! Left with unsaleble houses I think Thai logic and Sabai Sabai will prevail. The houses will stand empty until financial confidence returns.
A sprout is for life - not just for Christmas.
Well said Maggie
Friend of mine who's lived here 23 years assured me house prices will not drop in HH and stagnate until the recovery as was the case in 1997
Expats on low fixed incomes are faced with
1) go home and live off the state if they do not have property or family to live with
2) go to Cambodia or other SE Asia countries that have less penalising visa conditions
3) go up country and live illegally (it happens)
4) go find a backdoor deal through dodgy Thai contacts (it happens)
Many twitchy expats here at the moment
Feel sorry for the guys here on fixed incomes, retirement visas (so no work), sold up at home and have settled with Thai wives, children and family and are totally committed to living here
My normal optimism is being stretched ( but I survived the 87 black October thing), but there is and must always be a way out
As a very good friend (23 years) here said to me ' in Thailand for every problem there are 15 solutions'
Personally, it's my grown up kids I worry about as they do not fully understand the implications and the fact that it may be a 'long blip'
So let's all keep our peckers up (no rude replies please)
Friend of mine who's lived here 23 years assured me house prices will not drop in HH and stagnate until the recovery as was the case in 1997
Expats on low fixed incomes are faced with
1) go home and live off the state if they do not have property or family to live with
2) go to Cambodia or other SE Asia countries that have less penalising visa conditions
3) go up country and live illegally (it happens)
4) go find a backdoor deal through dodgy Thai contacts (it happens)
Many twitchy expats here at the moment
Feel sorry for the guys here on fixed incomes, retirement visas (so no work), sold up at home and have settled with Thai wives, children and family and are totally committed to living here
My normal optimism is being stretched ( but I survived the 87 black October thing), but there is and must always be a way out
As a very good friend (23 years) here said to me ' in Thailand for every problem there are 15 solutions'
Personally, it's my grown up kids I worry about as they do not fully understand the implications and the fact that it may be a 'long blip'
So let's all keep our peckers up (no rude replies please)
RICHARD OF LOXLEY
It’s none of my business what people say and think of me. I am what I am and do what I do. I expect nothing and accept everything. It makes life so much easier.
It’s none of my business what people say and think of me. I am what I am and do what I do. I expect nothing and accept everything. It makes life so much easier.
-
Guess
- Deceased
- Posts: 3470
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 3:01 pm
- Location: BangSaphan. Laurasia. Sub thumb
The topic name implies Brits only. It would be good to hear the experiences of US ex pats who had to apply for marriage/retirement visas when the dollar hit is ts lowest.
The statement that Richard makes about every problem in Thailand has 15 solutions has a lot of truth in it.
When the retirement requirement was raised to 65,000 Baht per month I arranged a visa for a guy who only had 50,000 Baht coming in.
It didn't require pulling any strings or bribery, just getting to the right person in immigration that had the authority to make a decision.
The visa financial requirements are guidelines that do not have to be enforced if everything else holds up.
My concern would be more to do with the cost of living. With inflation in Thailand and the lowering of the exchange rate there must be a few people now who are struggling to uphold their lifestyle. Then I wonder that if the government looks at the situation a realises that the recommend financial requirements are now out of date we could see another Thai style inflationary rise.
I am not convinced house prices across Thailand are affected directly by expat demand. When the economic slow down started here at the end of last year the BofT announced that house prices were now rising much slower and well below inflation. This is still true today.
The pockets of the expat community do not follow the trends of the country as a whole. Hua Hin particularly, has had recent rises that are way out of line with demand. Many factors have caused this. But now owners have either paid those high prices or have seen their properties being valued at high prices, are reluctant to let them go for any less. This is assuming, of course, that they have the choice.
If we see any more forced sales for any number of reasons then I can see a situation where house (or rather land) prices are devalued in areas such as Hua Hin.
The statement that Richard makes about every problem in Thailand has 15 solutions has a lot of truth in it.
When the retirement requirement was raised to 65,000 Baht per month I arranged a visa for a guy who only had 50,000 Baht coming in.
It didn't require pulling any strings or bribery, just getting to the right person in immigration that had the authority to make a decision.
The visa financial requirements are guidelines that do not have to be enforced if everything else holds up.
My concern would be more to do with the cost of living. With inflation in Thailand and the lowering of the exchange rate there must be a few people now who are struggling to uphold their lifestyle. Then I wonder that if the government looks at the situation a realises that the recommend financial requirements are now out of date we could see another Thai style inflationary rise.
I am not convinced house prices across Thailand are affected directly by expat demand. When the economic slow down started here at the end of last year the BofT announced that house prices were now rising much slower and well below inflation. This is still true today.
The pockets of the expat community do not follow the trends of the country as a whole. Hua Hin particularly, has had recent rises that are way out of line with demand. Many factors have caused this. But now owners have either paid those high prices or have seen their properties being valued at high prices, are reluctant to let them go for any less. This is assuming, of course, that they have the choice.
If we see any more forced sales for any number of reasons then I can see a situation where house (or rather land) prices are devalued in areas such as Hua Hin.
[color=blue][size=134]Care in the community success story.[/size][/color]
I'm not a Brit so the pound dropping does not effect me much.
However the Aussie $ and the Kiwi $ are where my savings sit and as most of you are probably aware they have not fared any better than the pound, down about 30% in a bit over a month.
Right now I'm in the process of having a condo completely remodeled, and with any luck it should be completed in the next couple of weeks. Fortunately we moved the money in to pay for the project at the time we made the agreement with the builder. That was six months ago so can't complain about the exchange rate at that time and the price has not changed.
Having the B800,000 sitting in our account for the retirement visa now turns out to be a nice feature as that means we will not have to bring any $ into the country from our savings. In place of the 800,000 we will go into the embassy and get the necessary letter about 65,000 a month and leave that 800,000 baht free to spend. Since we own everything we have it does not take to much to survive comfortable.
I sympathize with those who are doing it tough because the politicians and bankers got so greedy. Hopefully this will run it's course before long. But it appears it is going to be a long and painfull recovery to get back in the position we were before the big crunch.
But looking on the bright side, LOS is a much nicer place to tough it out than anwhere else I can think of.
However the Aussie $ and the Kiwi $ are where my savings sit and as most of you are probably aware they have not fared any better than the pound, down about 30% in a bit over a month.
Right now I'm in the process of having a condo completely remodeled, and with any luck it should be completed in the next couple of weeks. Fortunately we moved the money in to pay for the project at the time we made the agreement with the builder. That was six months ago so can't complain about the exchange rate at that time and the price has not changed.
Having the B800,000 sitting in our account for the retirement visa now turns out to be a nice feature as that means we will not have to bring any $ into the country from our savings. In place of the 800,000 we will go into the embassy and get the necessary letter about 65,000 a month and leave that 800,000 baht free to spend. Since we own everything we have it does not take to much to survive comfortable.
I sympathize with those who are doing it tough because the politicians and bankers got so greedy. Hopefully this will run it's course before long. But it appears it is going to be a long and painfull recovery to get back in the position we were before the big crunch.
But looking on the bright side, LOS is a much nicer place to tough it out than anwhere else I can think of.
The Thai Baht is way to strong at the moment. A lot of this has to do with overseas selling of investments in Thailand. Many of these sales will eventually result in Thai Baht being sold for other currencies and that money being taken out of the country, this has a habit of falsely overvaluing the local currency. The worst thing Thailand could do now is to devalue it's own currency, especially with the lack of new investment coming into Thailand. I can see a run on the Baht very early next year.
Meanwhile it's all smiles for anyone importing into Thailand, foreign goods are a bit cheaper to buy for once.
Meanwhile it's all smiles for anyone importing into Thailand, foreign goods are a bit cheaper to buy for once.
Per Angusta In Augusta.
-----------------------------------------------
http://www.facebook.com/huahinhamandbacon
www.hamandbacon.co.th
-----------------------------------------------
http://www.facebook.com/huahinhamandbacon
www.hamandbacon.co.th
-
margaretcarnes
- Rock Star
- Posts: 4172
- Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:28 am
- Location: The Rhubarb Triangle
GBP vs THB
I know this is totally off topic, but not sure that toad waddling along under JDs hamandbacon website address looks particularly tasty! Others, of course, might fancy it in a burger! 
A sprout is for life - not just for Christmas.
Crazy, checked it today because I was going to pull some cash out of the ATM and checked xe.com first, it is 53.7765 Baht to a Pound(18:30 today).
Scary man.
It just doesn't make any sense why the Baht is so strong when there is very little reason for it to be, OK, the pound might be having a rough ride at the moment, but surely not that bad.
Also strange that the Thais don't re-adjust the Baht value, as suggested in the 'devaluation' thread. This situation does no good for the Thais as they export so much rice/cheap goods or whatever they do actually export.
Not cool all round I think. 65-70 for a puond keeps most happy on all sides.
Scary man.
It just doesn't make any sense why the Baht is so strong when there is very little reason for it to be, OK, the pound might be having a rough ride at the moment, but surely not that bad.
Also strange that the Thais don't re-adjust the Baht value, as suggested in the 'devaluation' thread. This situation does no good for the Thais as they export so much rice/cheap goods or whatever they do actually export.
Not cool all round I think. 65-70 for a puond keeps most happy on all sides.
Resolve dissolves in alcohol
The pound is not the only one taking a beating, infact most currencies are suffering in comparison to the USD, the Yen and baht.
The AUD is just over 20Baht now and it was up at 30 a few months ago
The KIWI dollar is at 19 and it was at 25 not to long ago.
So you are not suffering alone. IMHO once the US has there election you will see some moves in the currency, most likely for the better. Now I should mention that is based on no facts just a gut feel. Hopefully it is not indigestion.
The AUD is just over 20Baht now and it was up at 30 a few months ago
The KIWI dollar is at 19 and it was at 25 not to long ago.
So you are not suffering alone. IMHO once the US has there election you will see some moves in the currency, most likely for the better. Now I should mention that is based on no facts just a gut feel. Hopefully it is not indigestion.
My impression is because the UK is going into a recession, job losses, banks going under, government 85 Billion bail out, property prices dropping 30%. Thailand hasn't had this yet.It just doesn't make any sense why the Baht is so strong when there is very little reason for it to be, OK, the pound might be having a rough ride at the moment, but surely not that bad.
SJ
spot on super joe. thailands problems will be different to the u.k. exports hit regardless of a strong baht, slow domestic demand and a lack of tourists. about 6 months down the road. can not wait. bring it on. !!!
miked
miked
Last edited by miked on Tue Oct 28, 2008 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/10 ... 087068.php
interesting read from the nation newspaper
miked
interesting read from the nation newspaper
miked
Why the Baht is strong and possibly set to remain so...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Econ ... 5Dk02.html
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Econ ... 5Dk02.html