GBP vs THB

[Wanderlust]

I think the pound had a bad day today generally, and it is just puzzling as to why the baht can stay so strong. Hopefully the pound will bounce up now.

[margaretcarnes]

No Superjoe, I seem to remember getting under 50 baht to the pound in late 99. Maybe someone can confirm this, but after the peak of 90 odd to the pound in 97 it took a pretty steep slide.

[Wanderlust]

mags,
No it never went that low from my memory - I arrived in 1998 and apart from a month or two here or there have been here ever since, and I was always working on around 60 to the pound; right now is the lowest i can remember.

[MrPlum]

i have received so much abuse and ridicule regarding
predictions

Hi miked

If you resist posting for fear of being attacked, then those of us who do value all opinion will only get the 'board approved' line. I don't see this as teaching me anything or allowing me to assess risk.

Please keep posting.

I went with the prediction that the UKP was going to tank BTW and transferred funds from the UK to here. So it definitely worked for me. At least so far. Gained on the currency and lost on the gold so about even. Gold was always a risk but I kept some of my powder dry and am buying again on Monday based on the chart as well as continued doom mongering from the talking heads.

I haven't got a clue of course, so adopt the views of whichever pundit presses my buttons. These two are always a fun read...

http://theinternationalforecaster.com/I ... Juggernaut
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08 ... 02308.html

Cheers.

[richard]

Miked

Don't stop posting

I regularly get some stick but shrug it off. We can't all agree with a particular point of view. If we all were worried about flack we'd all be in our shells and the forum would be dead.

I quite often learn something from any posts disagreeing with my posts. After all communication of varied views is a part of learning. We NEVER stop learning!!!

We are all coming from different directions too and a post may well be based od someones particular circumstances

[BaaBaa.]

This is getting ridiculous.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

SCB is on 53.50375

[miked]

hi mr plum,
thanks for your kind words and support. my remarks about "hua hin elite"
and " 5 star farangs" was never directed at you. quite the opposite infact.
the list of possibles grows shorter though. i will not name names only say that i was refering to 5 members
i haven't posted on this subject because if i give my honest opinion on thai baht / u.k. pound exchange rate i will be called an idiot because how can you predict that. ??? but in december 2007 i stuck my neck out and predicted a rate 0f 54. abuse and ridicule, but perhaps more by luck it turned our absolutely correct. it is now dropping like a stone and i just wonder how many farangs will be forced to return home. the aus dollar is collapsing and the euro if forecast to do the same. what will that do to property prices here.?? thats for another post.
miked

[miked]

hi richard
thanks for your kind words. i'm o.k. with stick, i do after all support watford.
you are not one of the hua hin elite referred to.
regards
miked

[Super Joe]

This is getting ridiculous.
SCB is on 53.50375

and notes at 52.28

SJ

[BaaBaa.]

SCB TT 53.185 now. Bangkok Bank TT 52.71

[Guess]

Yeah that rate, 54.88, is for 'notes'. TT ended at 55.78.

Nightmare ain't it, is this the weakest the Pound has been against Baht since before 1997 Asian financial crisis ??

SJ

MikeD, I think what caused a misunderstanding with a few people is that some (sargeant+others) were referring to TT rates that you get at the ATM and others, including your quote above is notes. These are actually the two extremes. I have noticed that the differential is constantly about 2% which currently adds up to about one Baht per pound.

Today has seen a major disparity which, when comparing both to SFR, appears that they are again going in opposite directions. The graphs on this site give a slightly clearer picture.

http://www.x-rates.com/d/GBP/CHF/graph30.html

This could be just another spike but the general trend still continues with a steady drop of THB to GBP.

I put the question that PET asked about the strength of the Baht, to a old friend of mine who deals in Forex and he has no idea either. The interesting thing he did say was that Thaksin's and his cronies movement of Baht to cover their trails was restricting the amount of Baht on the market. The funds in the name of the Thaksin family are fairly small in the overall picture of things but he still has influence here in Thailand and with other money launderers. Like everything, short supply = price increase.

If there is any truth in this it could mean that the Baht will stay high for some time. (2 Years less remission???).

As for sub 50 THB to GBP. I don't remember it but I have always been told that 65 - 66 is healthy for trade between the two countries. I first came to Thailand in about October 1999. I have a mate who bought a bar for 550,000 Baht. He reckons he only got 40 to the pound then. I think he had had it for 2 years when I went out there.

This means he bought just before the economic crash (most likely) or during or just after.

The final straw was the floating of the Thai currency, the baht. It had been pegged at 25 baht to the dollar, but Thailand lost vast sums in foreign currency and the government was forced to float the baht when it ran out of foreign exchange reserves. That occurred on July 2, 1997, which officially marks the beginning of the Asia Economic Crash.

The baht very quickly dropped to 33 baht to the dollar (a 50% drop) and continued to slide all the way to 57 baht to the dollar.

I was working in the US at bthe time and getting about 1.66 USD to 1 GBP.

[miked]

Guess,
thanks for your post, as always interesting and informative. i think that the fall in the pound has been over done and hopefully can get back something on the baht. very interesting what you say about thaksin, that man is a cancer.
the thai baht is very strong, who will they export to next year.?? the world in recession and a strong thai baht making importing from thailand very expensive.
what will happen to the thai car export market.?? sell them in Australia.??? the aus dollar has collapsed against the baht. thailand is the largest exporter of rice in the world and the price has fallen well down from its peak.
the government still insist that exports will rise between 10 and 15%. it just does not add up. i think economic problems will hit thailand but not till well into next year and at that time the u.k. is forecast to come out of recession. for now we have to put up with very low exchange rates. the pound does seem to have stopped falling and I wonder if the B.O.E will not now reduce rates further so as to support the pound. lets hope so.
could it be worse.?? well yes, at least watford do win sometimes.!!
miked

[lomuamart]

To the best of my memory (and that gets confused quite often these days), I came here for holiday in 1989. Rate was about 35-40 to GBP.
Returned in 1997 ish and was still around 40.
In 1998, the day I did the business at Bangkok Bank to buy the old bar, I got 87.50. A couple of days later it had gone out to over 90. My ex was giving me a hard time because I didn't wait a couple of days. The way I saw it was that the bar had cost less than half of what it would have been the year before. I wasn't complaining.
I cannot recall the rate dropping below 60 (Ok maybe by a Baht or so for a few days) since 1998.
The future? Well miked seems to know a fair bit more about this than me and he's been pretty accurate for some time.
I always run my annual budget through my father. It runs from May to April. This year I put the exchange rate in at an average of 60. He advised me to redo at 55. Seems like he'll probably be pretty correct as well

[Super Joe]

This website is good http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory
You can check out Thai rates every day since 1993, against any currency.

Pound/Baht since 1993:
Highest 91.36 25th January 1998
Lowest 37.04 5th April 1994
Today is lowest since August 1997, before Asian crash.

Anyone with Baht spare for a couple of years can open a Sterling account with a Thai bank and buy some. Might drop in coming months but bet it's well higher than 53 when UK recovers.

SJ

[cookmanchef]

Mike,

The hope that BOE will not cut rates is totally in vain and pretty selfish. 50 point cut next month is already built in to £'s current value.

Certainly hurts me too but it is long overdue to help hard pressed small businesses and "eventually" mortgage customers, (When the greedy banks pass it on).

Should have been cutting regularly over the last year but they totally misread what was happening and believed inflation was a threat.

I'm with you on next summer for the recovery to start. The super rich will be waiting to pounce and buy billions worth of shares.