GBP vs THB

[STEVE G]

Sarge, does 500 yards from the beach qualify as offshore? I thought you had to be outside the 12 mile limit.

[sargeant]

I should have seen that one coming to use a term you are probably well aware of steve its landside

Sorry Malc i wasnt being sarcastic it just came out like that

Its just a normal nationwide main street branch i walked in said can i open an account yes sir no problem i only have my pension paid in and draw it by atm over here

[Super Joe]

Why is there no charges either end Sarge ? Do the two banks have some kind of agreement, 'correspondent banks' I think the term is ?
I get charged here by my Siam Bank to pay in a Siam Bank cashiers cheque from another of their customers

SJ

[sargeant]

SJ let me be perfectly honest i dont know, the post i put on here at 2.16 today is exactely what happened and has happened since i came back from England. Prior to that i had to wait for statements. Until you gave me that great link i used the Bank of Ayudahya because i had by trial and error of every bank here waiting for my statements and then working it out came to the decision that BofA was the best My sister convinced me when she came on holiday to change to the Nationwide and it has worked out exactely as i have posted . As WL says its not for everybody but for the paltry stipend i have as i see it i cannot do any better.and until yesterday although i thought it was charge free at both ends i was not sure so i did it deliberately to find out
and my post of 2.16 is what happened i was to get a higher rate than i was expecting as well

[PeteC]

Is it perhaps time to load up the suitcase with cash the next time home? What rate are the private money changers in town offering? Pete

[sargeant]

SJ just a little aside I also realized that drawing my pension on the last 3 days of the month was costing me upward or downward there is almost always a steeper dip or a dip on the end/first of the month.
Talking to my brother in law (his idea) my sis internet transfered a sum eqivalent to my pension on the 20th of the month (no charge same branch) when my pension came in on the 30th (i internet transfered it back to her account no charge same branch).
I dont need that anymore as i have got to a position that my pension comes in and i leave it and then look to see if there is a rise and draw it then hence my question earlier about a monthly cycle now i have your link i am spreadsheeting it and in 3/4/5/6 months i should have a better idea and maybe squeeze a few more baht out of my stipend

[Guess]

There's a big difference between the two, Bangkok Bank today:
Notes = 58.30, TT = 59.17.

SJ

ATMs use the TT rates.

TT (Tele Transfer) means that the money is always earning interest so expected to be cheaper.

Notes do not earn interest and are a cost and a risk. (forgeries, theft etc.)

That 1.2 ish differential is added to cover the extra cost of handling cash (sic).

Mutual/reciprocary agreements exist between banks but I doubt if that is the case here. The transfers and conversion rates, as I have written before are dictated by the network suppliers (Visanet, Midnet, JCB etc.)

To explain the apparent anomaly with Sargeant's withdrawal:

(I say apparent because it is exactly what I would expect and also what I discovered when with drawing cash here from a Nationwide account in the UK).

There are a few important facts here:

There is no way of telling if the TT rate (there is no such thing as a cyber rate) is the one used by the ATM owner. It is a question of timing. However you will not be very far out and it is the best estimate you will get.

The withdrawal slip should have a ATM transaction fee on it. It might well be zero but it has not been mentioned.

It is highly unlikely that the Bank of Ayudayha will allow a Nationwide customer to use its services for free. It could be absorbed but very unlikely and unbanklike.

The fact that an internet(or telebanking) view of transactions dose not include a transfer charge is not surprising although I would think that they would have to show it on a written statement but maybe not. The point is that it is included. A Barclay's bank user on this forum told me at the weekend that he reckoned his end to end rate was about 3%. This includes charges from both ends and the %age creamed off in the TT figure. To get that figure you have to subtract the TT buy Baht rate from the midstream rate. At the moment the buy and sell figures are:

0.0169981
0.0165235

The midstream rate is halfway(usually) between the two.

If you calculate how much you would expect to get for 15,000 at the current TT rate and then compare with what you are charged by your bank you should find a difference of about 2.50 Pounds. This is the normalised standard rate for forex when dealing with a UK bank.

[miked]

Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2007 10:54 pm Post subject: exchange rates low!



Please don't shoot the messenger.!!
i have been a little concerned about the strengh of the thai baht this last week. i didn't think the fall was the normal up and down that you expect.
american express are giving the following forcast for the thai baht at october 2008.

30 thai baht us dollar.
54 thai baht sterling.

as i say this is not my forcast so please don,t slag me off. i,m just trying to warn you of what might happen.
mike
...........................................................................................................

just to put the record straight. i have received so much abuse and ridicule regarding
predictions thai baht/ u.k. pound exchange rates. have a look at the above post, dated
23-11-07.
i will not mention any names, i don’t need to. the “5 star” farangs, hua hins “finest”are fully aware that this is directed at them and i,m sure that this small group of elite will respond with ridicule in due course.
miked

[Wanderlust]

miked,
I am not going to ridicule you, but I have always been puzzled as to how anyone can predict currency movements that far ahead, in this case American Express making a forecast not only of direction but what rate it will actually reach 10 months later. It smacks of someone attempting to control the market rather than free and fair currency movements. As it stands they are wrong in October so far, with todays mid-market rates standing at 34.2654 to the dollar, and 58.3056 to the pound, but there is continued downward pressure on both currencies against the baht. I have thought, along with many others including yourself by the sound of it, that the movement of the baht has been suspicious given the various other factors that normally affect currencies. The good news is that the Thai government have already recognised the need for the baht to weaken, so this trend should end soon; one thing does occur to me though, which is that could it be Thaksin using his billions to manipulate the market?

[miked]

wanderlust,
today at 15.08 the siam commericial bank selling rate for thai baht 54.88.
i agree that the u.s. dollar rate was forcast incorrectly but the pound forcast was spot on.
my "5 star farang" and hua hin elite" comment was not directed towards you.
miked

[PET]

It seems as though the Finance Ministry were looking at a 5% devaluation of the Bhat earlier this week, when the rate was around 58 to £1, but the Central Bank were strongly against this and want to keep inflation under control and the exchange rate in line with regional exchanges.

For those who understand this please elucidate because how the Thai Baht remains strong with all that is going on is quite beyond me.

[Guess]

wanderlust,
today at 15.08 the siam commericial bank selling rate for thai baht 54.88.
i agree that the u.s. dollar rate was forcast incorrectly but the pound forcast was spot on.
my "5 star farang" and hua hin elite" comment was not directed towards you.
miked

I think that all that anybody was saying is that it is not possible to predict future rates. This is definitely what I was saying. I certainly, had no intention to ridicule. Unfortunately, at the time there was a spanner in the works that was discrediting all of us who have a little financial knowledge

There are guys/gals in various financial centres around the world who deal in currency for a living. Many take it on but only a minority succeed.

Forecasters have some knowledge of the trends and can probably estimate with a little more accuracy than Joe Public. A Forex futures dealer needs to be one step ahead or he will go broke very quickly.

It is no more of a science than horse racing or football result prediction.

Those who study form and understand horse racing will have a better chance of making money than the chance punter.

Those of us that study current form have a better chance of scoring points in the "I know the Score" game than players who just go with their hearts and a finger in the air.

However there are no guarantees. Nobody foresaw the strengthening of the Baht. The drop of value of the GBP was on the cards but the brief rally before the drop was unseen until it happened.

What Wanderlust has written is exactly as I see things. I too, am always suspicious of market makers. The key to manipulation of a market is to hide your actions from the market place. This gives you an advantage of the majority.

Anyway, the current sell Baht rate is 56.24625 for 1 GBP TT rate. Spikes occur quite often when speculators get wind of a movement. Check the graphs here:

http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/CHF/graph120.html

That's normal and is just as likely to happen on the Pork Belly futures market.

Another point I would like to make is that the currency market, like many others, is fickle. Those who can afford to do so will cut their losses and move to something else at a mere sniff of a problem. This sudden dumping of stock creates a mini recession all on its own.

The GBP took a hit in the anti poll tax era and the Italian Lira took a hit just before the Mafia trials. There was no economic sense for either, just speculation.

[Super Joe]

Thai Bank TT rates today (apart from the highest rate which was from yesterday): http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx



SJ

[miked]

http://www.scb.co.th/html/exchange/22102008_150800.htm

siam bank 15.08 thai baht/ u.k. pound 54.88

miked

[Super Joe]

Yeah that rate, 54.88, is for 'notes'. TT ended at 55.78.

Nightmare ain't it, is this the weakest the Pound has been against Baht since before 1997 Asian financial crisis ??

SJ