miked wrote:my opinion has changed after recent events and am leaning towards the informed opinion of MrPlum. i think we will will see 40 before 50 baht/pound. long term i would settle for 45. if your working or have an income paid in baht then the exchange rate is irrelevant. if you have been here a number of years then you have had good times. if you can't survive with the present exchange rate then return to your own country, simple. Thailand doesn't want poor farang.
miked
Your opinion in the past has been pretty sound, although we all know it is extremely difficult to get this whole FX business correct.
However you mention ' after recent events' which I would have thought were in Sterling's favour ie UK Govt measures are on the right track, but of course it will take much time.
So, Miked what is your reasoning ?
Courage is grace under pressure and when circumstances change you change your mind.
Tempting fate there dude, probably just bounce off again like last time. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for a 50+ rate. Everyone is manipulating their currencies lower in order to try and export their way out of the problems.
Don't know the relationship details or how it works between the FTSE100 and the exchange rate, but the FTSE100 is just over 6000 at the moment, a definitely marked improvement from 6-7 months ago.
And Thailand is saying "make hay while the sun shines". Import technology and so on. To hell with exports at the moment. And we'll think about interest rate rises to attract more foreign money and control inflation.
That's the way I see it. In other words bad news for exchange rates.
So, whilst I didn't want to agree with miked a while ago, I have to say I see the thunderclouds here for a while longer.
For us Brits, the only savior will be if the BOE raise their interest rates and IMHO that will happen, but I just don't know when.
The improvement in Sterling is all to do with the fact that inflation is going up in the UK and 'opinion' is quite strongly forecasting a rise in interest rates around June. The foreign exchange markets have taken this somewhat into account and hence the improved sterling/bhat exchange rate
Courage is grace under pressure and when circumstances change you change your mind.
PET wrote:The improvement in Sterling is all to do with the fact that inflation is going up in the UK and 'opinion' is quite strongly forecasting a rise in interest rates around June. The foreign exchange markets have taken this somewhat into account and hence the improved sterling/bhat exchange rate
Sorry I'm not too savvy with this stuff, but what happens if people in the UK simply stop spending this year - say due to the increased VAT as well as inflation? Or at least if retail spending drops significantly anyway. There are essentials which we still have to buy of course, but there is already a painful reaction to the extra VAT on fuel, so if interest rates do increase around June as well....
Interesting to read the first couple of posts in this thread when people were talking about slight improvements when the exchange rates were in the mid 60's, oh those were the days.
PET wrote:The improvement in Sterling is all to do with the fact that inflation is going up in the UK and 'opinion' is quite strongly forecasting a rise in interest rates around June. The foreign exchange markets have taken this somewhat into account and hence the improved sterling/bhat exchange rate
Sorry I'm not too savvy with this stuff, but what happens if people in the UK simply stop spending this year - say due to the increased VAT as well as inflation? Or at least if retail spending drops significantly anyway. There are essentials which we still have to buy of course, but there is already a painful reaction to the extra VAT on fuel, so if interest rates do increase around June as well....
Quite simply if inflation does not increase to the extent expected then interest rates will not rise in the short term
Courage is grace under pressure and when circumstances change you change your mind.
If there's some special agreement where Commonwealth citizens can easily open bank accounts in other commonwealth countries, I would quickly open one in Australia. Their Dollar is getting stronger by the day and their local savings interest rate is over 6%. Offshore banks such as HSBC are offering 3.25 or 3.50 on a 1 year time deposit, I think 2.65-.75 on a 6 month. Greedy SOB's as they're taking too big of a cut for themselves IMO. But.....it's a better rate than most countries are offering at present. Pete
Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Source
prcscct - take a look online at some of the Malaysian banks. You can get multi currency accounts with relative ease. In one case (though I forget who) 27 currencies, so if you want to switch into currencies like AUD you can do so comparitively comfortably and easily.
Had enough of the trolls. Going to sleep. I may be some time....
Korkenzieher wrote:prcscct - take a look online at some of the Malaysian banks. You can get multi currency accounts with relative ease. In one case (though I forget who) 27 currencies, so if you want to switch into currencies like AUD you can do so comparitively comfortably and easily.
Thanks, I'll look at them. I have the same multi currency facilities now with HSBC Hong Kong, but always looking for banks with lower fees. HSBC has become a 'charge for everything' bank, almost. They now even charge for certain account email alerts. Pete
Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Source
PET wrote:The improvement in Sterling is all to do with the fact that inflation is going up in the UK and 'opinion' is quite strongly forecasting a rise in interest rates around June. The foreign exchange markets have taken this somewhat into account and hence the improved sterling/bhat exchange rate
May happen sooner than June as today the inflation figures have been published and they are higher than expected.
May happen sooner than June as today the inflation figures have been published and they are higher than expected.
Yeah, on the BBC they're saying it's reported as 3.7% at the end of December. More of a question of when (even May is being bandied around), not if...........sometime eventually they have to get people to start to consider saving. The target rate of 2% has being missed for 13 month now, but if you take out fuel and food then we are more close to 2.7% - 2.9%.
I listened to an 'expert' on the radio on my way home saying its in line with what is expected, and if anything, a bit lower! All down to fuel and food seemingly and not expected to rise much higher before falling - seems to be doing as planned/anticipated!?
There's so many 'experts' seems as if it's all a bit of a guessing game.
Another interesting statistic mentioned today was that USA now owes China nearly 1 trillion dollars !!
slight improvement to 48 + will it reach 50 again this year ?
Pete 
