GBP vs THB

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PET
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by PET »

As I said DC has stated this will happen and quite right too, but it will hardly solve the problem - that was the point I was trying to get across but our German friends are the real answer, you know !!
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Khundon1975
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by Khundon1975 »

Pet wrote

"The answer is with the German car manufacturers, they have such incredible financial resources and did not need any financial help in the crisis last year, so we should go into the Euro with the LIB Dems and sit back with relief"

Not sure that the German car makers are going to bail anyone out! You could ask them, I'll hold your coat.

If the UK were in the Euro, we (along with the other Euro countries) would now be faced with a huge bill to get Greece out of the doo doo. I don't think we could afford it right now, do you?
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by redzonerocker »

Khundon1975 wrote:
Not sure that the German car makers are going to bail anyone out! You could ask them, I'll hold your coat.
not just the car makers! :| public opinion suggests the german people in general are also against the idea of bailing out greece !!! :|
merkel was recently suggesting that this was the fork in the road for the euro, no agreement or solution with the greek crisis & the euro basically has no future.

when & not if, spain, italy, ireland & portugal get out the begging bowl, the euro will probably disintegrate anyway.
what a mess that could be :lach:

it may have seemed a good idea in the beginning but i always found joe public in all the euro countries i visited were not happy with there new enforced currency :|

hopefully the idea of the eurostate will go up in flames with it too :D

:offtopic:
with all the past economic & political strife that's happened & the current situation in thailand, it's quite baffling that the baht has remained so strong :? :|
hard to figure out really :? :|
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PeteC
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by PeteC »

This can be scary for some Forex investors. If sitting in a bad position with Euro or GBP, search the world for a currency that's likely to fall hard, then recover. The Baht comes to mind unless the government is adamant about propping it up forever to save face. Buy it when it falls and wait for it to recover then sell off back into whatever currency you want. It should make you whole again, at least back to the price you bought your Euro and GBP at initially. The key is for the value of the Euro and the GBP to remain reasonable as the Baht falls. Hurry up and fall Baht!!! :roll: Normal disclaimer.....not a pro. Pete :cheers:
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by PET »

My comments about Germany etc etc were TONGUE IN CHEEK - in reply to the comments by LOVERBOY44 earlier this afternoon.

Oh dear !!!!!
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Re: GBP vs THB

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UK has been printing debt like confetti, yes, but it is 30 year at 4% rather than the Greek equivalent of 3 year at 10% (rounding...). Debt servicing for Greece is on a different planet compared to the UK. While it remains an issue, the reason that the markets still treat UK debt as investment grade probably is for a reason! The markets believe that the UK can handle its debt pile. It doesn't have the same confidence about Club Med.

UK would be propping up the Euro if it was in it. Spain has to contribute to the Greek bail-out with about €8bn that it hasn't got. Cameron's projected savings were only €6bn. How feasible does that look. Effective devaluation for Sterling happened over 2 years ago. Greece would love to be where the UK is now.

Germany has to bail out Greece because without Euro stability it has no market. German domestic consumption is on the floor, and without buyers in Greece, Spain etc. they are in a worse position than the UK. Arguably, the only reason the Euro is where it is, is because it has been held down as a basket compared to where it would be if it was still DM. Then how competitive would Germany be? To paraphrase - Germany is only strong in the face of competition from China because it's currency has been held artificially low by the dead weight of it's associate members in the Euro. And that is now unwinding.

The UK doesn't make anything - except pharmaceuticals, and defence equipmnent and so on and so forth. It may only be 12% of the UK economy, but on certain measures, the UK's manufacturing sector is the 6th largest in the world. Sorry, we don't do ships anymore. Maybe we should. Do you want to be a dock worker or a steel fabricator? Thought not. Added value doesn't only happen through sweat.

Oh, and as for 'the UK doesn't make cars'? BS. The UK makes loads of cars - OK they have Japanese labels on them, but the jobs and associated knock on benefits, taxes, VAT etc. are in the UK.

The UK is not in a *great* position, but it is in a way better position than a lot of people seem to give it credit for. So who does the world go to now for investment banking services? Wall Street disappeared, remember! When the dust settles, the UK financial services sector will be 1) significantly stronger than it was before 2) a larger sector of the economy than it was before (for better or worse) and 3) the Governments shares in it will be worth a lot of money. Bye Bye deficit!
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by caller »

Korkenzieher wrote:Cameron's projected savings were only €6bn.
I think that was just for day 1. Not sure what he had planned for day 2!
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by Korkenzieher »

Well, if Clegg ever lets him wear the superhero underpants, we may yet find out!
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by loverboy44 »

Oh Oh Korkenzieher,
what you said to me rubbish?
There are some true points you made and some are rubbish as you say.
Ok, i agree with you that the banks in the Uk are the most important tax payer.
But what is happening again? The casino has reopened. If you only see raw materials like Oil and gas they trade more than 20 times more that exists.
Bubble i can hear you coming again.......
You can only get real value if you produce. Papers and alike can blast from one day to another.
To talk about Germany. All companies are headging their currency by either trading currencies or simply producing in a country with a different currency like BMW and Daimler in America or Mini in England or Siemens in China.
In fact they are pruducing something that you can touch and not making a bet if a share of company XY is rising or falling like they are doing now.
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by Korkenzieher »

Why is it that some people out there seem to think that simply because the UK is not Germany, it must be the industrial equivalent of Kazakhstan.

If you had a clue what you were actually talking about you might be dangerous!

I am British, have lived and worked in financial services in Germany for 15 years and spend my spare time in Thailand. You might disagree with what I say, but you don't actually seem equipped to disprove it.

Economic diversification across Europe is no different to that in the UK. The UK does Banking. Full stop. That doesn't mean than none happens in Frankfurt and Paris, but the scales are simply different. A bit like comparing London with Manchester. Germany makes cars. Likewise, some are made in France and Italy and Spain and the UK. Simply because more of this or that is made in one place or the other is, frankly, a meaningless statistic. Germany would make more cars in anycase, because its population is 25% bigger. Lies and Statistics...

All companies hedge their international currency exposure. If you want to get tectchy about it, where do you think Daimler does its hedging, Frankfurt or London. BP also hedge. For organisations like that, wiping a dozen currences out to form the euro is a meaningless gesture. BP is active in 134 countries! So only 122 they have to worry about then! Get on wikipedia and look something up about international ForEx markets before rabbiting on about them.

Financial markets are what they are. If you only see them as a casino, then you are simply inadequately equipt to discuss them. Markets exist for 2 purposes - price discovery and risk offsetting. Leveraged products have always existed and will continue to exist. The basic issue with the CDS market (to which I suspect you are alluding) and the securitised debt market in general, is that it takes place off balance sheet, so you don't know the liabilities of the underlying entities. That is because of over-regularion, not under-regulation! So a few cowboys spoiled the party. Even if Greece defaulted tomorrow, it doesn't go out of existence like Lehmans or Bear Stearns. It HAS to be dealt with, and the systemic consequences of that are far more in the face of the Eurozone than anywhere else. You may have noticed that the consequence of that is the Euro has been falling! If you have anything remotely worth contributing to the discussion, go ahead.

However, back to THB vs GBP. Why doesn't making Toyotas make the Thai economy weak, whereas making Nissans does (allegedly) in the UK. Answers on a postcard please...
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by loverboy44 »

Oh, i have a little clue what is going on but i can assure you i am not dangerous.
The real estate bubble wasn't produced in Germany. Guess where?
Maybe US, Uk?
Who produced it?
Maybe banks who couldn`t get their mouth full enough?
There was a time in 2007 when the mostly heard word was "mortgage".
Someone here said the UK is the no 6 producing country in the world.
Let's count:
China
US
Japan
France
Korea
Germany
India........
in whatever order.
So, the UK is going to drop maybe not close to Khasakstan but nearby.
Last week my 86 year old mother got a phone call from her bank and they sold her some bullshit she didn't even know what it was so i had to cancel it for her because those are not bankers any more but some kind of magazine sellers working on a comission (sorry i think bankers call it bonus).
I think we're a little bit off topic but if someone says that the GBP is better off than the EUR, i have to say stop dreaming.
By the way i worked for a bank in Luxembourg for quite some time.
Doesn't make me more intelligent not even smarter!
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by PET »

LB

Perhaps you would feel more at home in the EURO SECTION
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Super Joe
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by Super Joe »

loverboy44 wrote:So, the UK is going to drop maybe not close to Khasakstan but nearby.
Last week my 86 year old mother got a phone call from her bank and they sold her some bullshit she didn't even know what it was so i had to cancel it for her because those are not bankers any more but some kind of magazine sellers working on a comission (sorry i think bankers call it bonus).
I don't understand the relevance to a lot of what you post about the GBP either LB. Your constant theme has been how big a mistake it was that Britain never joined the Euro ... but y-o-y the Euro has weakened against the Pound :o

I think the GBP and the Euro both have more than a enough worries of their own, for differing reasons, and it could be years yet before the volcanic dust settles on their economies.

SJ
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by loverboy44 »

Hi Superjoe,
agree with that all economics are busy with themselves.
No, the EUR has not dropped against the GBP but the Pound dropped against the EUR about 25% scince 2008. That's a fact. Don't know where you got your info from.
The good thing is scince then you got a lot of tourists coming to the UK for shopping.
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by Super Joe »

loverboy44 wrote:No, the EUR has not dropped against the GBP but the Pound dropped against the EUR about 25% scince 2008. That's a fact. Don't know where you got your info from.
Hi LB,

Have another read of my post, and google 'y-o-y'.

SJ
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