GBP vs THB

[Korkenzieher]

Can't help feeling that the doom & gloom over Sterling is overdone. While 'Club Med' is going to the wall, there has to be some lingering doubt over the future viability (or at least membership of certain states) of the Euro. Sterling ought to roughly continue to shadow the USD. The Lib Dems even suggesting Euro entry while there are legions of commentators in Athens wondering if the UK is next - well, it is as near to political suicide as it can get given the dire state of the Labour party. It has been made very clear that the one thing Athens needs is the ability to devalue, which it no longer has. Mervyn did that 2 years ago, which is why the UK hasn't had any sustained deflation. Any chance of UK entry to the Euro effectively ceased over 2 years ago, and watching the gyrations of the Euro Commission and the ECB trying to resolve the whole thing, and very visibly not able to do so, won't have much improved the chances. The 2 major differences between the UK and Greece, deficit wise, are that 1) Greece has nothing to sell except sunshine, a few olives, goats and feta cheese compared to the UK's much larger (if comparitively undiversified economy); and 2) The UK is in debt not for one, but for two reasons - overspending largely on public sector projects (the deficit) and asset buying sprees (the debt). The asset buying spree, otherwise known as the financial services sector may one day actually be worth something. If it is, the debt magically goes away! Which leaves the deficit. Solution: public sector job cuts. The only people voting for Labour today will be people who stand to lose jobs and pensions if they lose office. It is a testament to the overburden imposed by the state that they are even remotely contending. A lot of people owe their jobs to that 13 years of public spending growth.

OK, so how does that all figure into THB vs GBP. Well, I figure GBP to strengthen slowly (not meltdown as some have speculated - I await the verdict of the markets on my judgement call here!). THB strength is the really unknown and surprising factor. Why it is high is a tough call, really! I had expected it to fall sharply over the last 18 months or so. That said, it is really pretty difficult to see how Thailand is going to balance the books with the ongoing losses from tourism and investment without seeing a substantial lowering of the Baht. Whoever wins the game of political hardball probably has to tackle that at some point. So my take is GBP to strengthen against the Baht. That has been my view for some time, and so far I've been wrong. But I still can't get over the 2 basic facts - Sterling to strengthen against the Euro and the Baht to lose value to regain market competitiveness. However, as wiser men than I have said, the markets can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent!

[JimmyGreaves]

Not Looking good as the votes are being counted. Looking like a hung parliament.

Just hit a year low Thai Baht - Pound Sterling.

Current 47.98640

52 Week High - 57.72400

52 Week Low - 47.83770

[sargeant]

I must have watched a dozen finance programmes on TV where the Fanking experts said quote
"A hung parliament has already been factored in to the pounds value"unquote

What a load of crap Lying gits bloody conmen the lot of them

[STEVE G]

The rate dropped quite a bit yesterday before any election results had even been counted.

[loverboy44]

Well Korrkenzieher, to me it looks as if, by any reason, the BP is somehow linked to the Euro. Maybe its because the UK is a member of the EU.
I would not be so positive about the GBP as in the UK there is no real production any more.
The Greek situation is tough but the Greeks only are 3% of the EU's GDP.
This problem is going to be solved with the help of the rich EU states and is on the way.
The UK made the worst mistake not to join the EUR as the UK could have now taken the help that Greece gets right now.

[PET]

[quote="loverboy44"
This problem is going to be solved with the help of the rich EU states and is on the way.
The UK made the worst mistake not to join the EUR as the UK could have now taken the help that Greece gets right now.[/quote]


What a load of rubbish.

Germany are scared stiff of having to bail out Spain and Portudal etc because they could not afford to do so - to say that they would have bailed out UK is ridiculous - what with I ask?

Because UK were not in the Euro and were able to let sterling effectively devalue is the ONLY reason why the UK is not in a much worse position.

[BaaBaa.]

Thanachart has just hit 46.79

[loverboy44]

what with I ask?

With Daimler, Siemens, Volkswagen,.........

not with

Barclays, Royal Bank of Scottland, Goldman Sachs, etc.......

By the way the IWF takes 50% of the garantees for Greece.

Cheers mate

[PET]

Rubbish again.

The debt of Spain is about $525 billion, Portugal $75 billion and Italy $900 billion - a total of $1.5 trillion all of which is due for payment within the next 3 years.

To suggest that multinational companies could finance this is ------- !!!!!!

[Khundon1975]

Well Korrkenzieher, to me it looks as if, by any reason, the BP is somehow linked to the Euro. Maybe its because the UK is a member of the EU.
I would not be so positive about the GBP as in the UK there is no real production any more.
The Greek situation is tough but the Greeks only are 3% of the EU's GDP.
This problem is going to be solved with the help of the rich EU states and is on the way.
The UK made the worst mistake not to join the EUR as the UK could have now taken the help that Greece gets right now.

And just how much help can Greece or the UK handle. LB?

30% off of pensions, 3 year pay freeze, social care torn up, to name just 3 things that they (IMF) are demanding from Greece for their help. Who need enemies when you have friends like them.

The Greeks have no one to blame but themselves for the mess they are in and being in the Euro means they cannot devalue. Tough. Cut them loose and see what the Euro countries do.

The real question is, what will a failure in the Euro pact do for the rest of the Euro countries. Can the Euro system be allowed to fail?

[PeteC]

.....30% off of pensions, 3 year pay freeze, social care torn up, to name just 3 things that they (IMF) are demanding from Greece for their help. Who need enemies when you have friends like them.

...and there we have what happens Don when generations know nothing but a welfare state form of government. Oh if life were so easy and sustainable, it's not, but now people are killing and burning because the dole is being taken away?! Pete

PS: Pssst, I know the fix but don't talk too loud. It's the future......Birth control.

[caller]

Hidden away in the drama of last night, The Times reported a treasury document that has proposed cuts in UK welfare benefits and means testing others, such as Child Benefit. I assume that will be considered by any incoming Govt? Can't be bothered to hunt for the link.

[PET]

The benefits and means testing has been announced by Cameron on many occasions, but it will hardly solve the financial mess the UK is in ( not that DC is stating this - Caller)

The answer is with the German car manufacturers, they have such incredible financial resources and did not need any financial help in the crisis last year, so we should go into the Euro with the LIB Dems and sit back with relief --------------------- Oh Basil Faulty please advise us !!

[BaaBaa.]

I assume that will be considered by any incoming Govt?

I would've thought that's the first thing the Tories will cut.

[caller]

The point is its not a Tory paper, rather a treasury one. Agreed, The Tories have outlined plans re: Tax credits, but none have talked of cutting welfare benefits - JSP, invalidity and the like.

Lets be honest, if we get a coalition, we get fudge and the decisons needed won't be made.