Global Warming/Climate Change 2

Discussion on science, nature and technology across the globe.
Post Reply
User avatar
MrPlum
Banned
Banned
Posts: 4568
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2007 6:57 pm

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by MrPlum »

Bristolian wrote:showing a graph of Global Warming that shows a scale of 30 - 80 degrees F scale is ludicrous in the extreme!
Not if you try to understand the point he is making. That the entire global warming since 1880 is 0.6 degrees, give or take a smidge. When you look at the steep charts you normally see, like the infamous 'Hockey Stick' graph, they are alarming/dramatic. Like the chart you posted.
A one-degree global change is significant a one- to two-degree drop was all it took to plunge the Earth into the Little Ice Age. A five-degree drop was enough to bury a large part of North America under a towering mass of ice 20,000 years ago.
Ok but I thought the problem was increases in temperature. Farming in Greenland. Balmy summers in Siberia. That kind of thing.

There is a difference in viewpoints, between those who see the Science as being the most important aspect and those who see the exploitation of the Science. I'm in the latter camp and don't really have an issue with the 'Save the Whale' types because I am one of them. Pollution is a major problem. For example, all our drinking water is now contaminated. It is important to exercise proper stewardship over the planet. However, with Monsanto still trying to control the global seed industry and wipe out diversity and the military bombing the crap out of country after country, and unaccountable corporations, more powerful than most countries, up to no good, what the politicians say on 'Climate Change' should take into account the systemic corruption right across the political, corporate and financial world. The corporations OWN the politicians. They are bought and paid for.

How on earth can you trust them?
User avatar
charlesh
Ace
Ace
Posts: 1512
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2008 4:01 am
Location: melbourne/lopburri

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by charlesh »

And Bristolian how are the temperatures taken? Hg thermometers or digital devices both of which have deviations at the levels that would be significant for the small changes you allude too especially at temperature extremes (A grade std vs B grade std etc). Why aren't the deviations ever mentioned? Not very scientific but as has been stated there does not appear to be much science associated with this topic in general.
Until something is done about rampant population growth then and only then will all this hot air ever go away ha, ha.
User avatar
STEVE G
Hero
Hero
Posts: 13596
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:50 am
Location: HUA HIN/EUROPE

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by STEVE G »

Why aren't the deviations ever mentioned?
Because over many measurements worldwide they'll average out to zero?
User avatar
Bristolian
Deceased
Deceased
Posts: 3128
Joined: Fri Nov 09, 2012 1:38 pm
Location: Hua Hin & Bangkok

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by Bristolian »

charlesh wrote:And Bristolian how are the temperatures taken? Hg thermometers or digital devices both of which have deviations at the levels that would be significant for the small changes you allude too especially at temperature extremes (A grade std vs B grade std etc). Why aren't the deviations ever mentioned? Not very scientific but as has been stated there does not appear to be much science associated with this topic in general.
Until something is done about rampant population growth then and only then will all this hot air ever go away ha, ha.
This is a very good question for which I have no answer. I used a graph from NASA as they probably have the best equipment and more scientists than any other organisation that I am aware of. I would like to think that the latest technology is used but of course the graphs and therefore data go back much further than the era of satalites.

If you believe the Data from NASA and obviously some don't, the Earth has been warming since 1880. Most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years. Even though the 2000s witnessed a solar output decline resulting in an unusually deep solar minimum in 2007-2009, surface temperatures continue to increase.

The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969.

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005.
"'The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why." - Mark Twain
sargeant
Deceased
Deceased
Posts: 4055
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:52 pm
Location: Pranburi CITY

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by sargeant »

It pays to remember that skeptics like Monkton have accepted there has been warming and even conceded that man has been responsible for some of it.]
So it is happening then ??????
the problem isn't as serious has been made out and we can do little about it
Not serious i disagree and will go with steve G and Bristolian a single degree IS a big deal

I do agree there is little we can do about it because population, urbanisation and deforestation are not being discussed let alone dealt with and wont be because of politics

I do agree this carbon tax PS is exactely that PS and is purely to raise taxes and make the believers feel better about paying them
the rich will get richer and the poor will fill their wallets/pay the real full price and all for nothing

the P stands for pig it smells a lot worse than BS and carbon taxes smell even worse
A Greatfull Guest of Thailand
User avatar
STEVE G
Hero
Hero
Posts: 13596
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:50 am
Location: HUA HIN/EUROPE

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by STEVE G »

....a single degree IS a big deal
"....to raise the temperature of the planet one degree Celsius requires about 5 exaJoules (5 with 18 zeros after it) of energy. That’s the equivalent to the entire energy consumption of the US for 4 million years."
http://www.motherearthnews.com/understa ... z2PZYgXGIi
sargeant
Deceased
Deceased
Posts: 4055
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:52 pm
Location: Pranburi CITY

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by sargeant »

RRRIIIGGGHHHTTTT steve

so IS it a big deal or IS it NOT

It sounds complicated if buggeral else
A Greatfull Guest of Thailand
sargeant
Deceased
Deceased
Posts: 4055
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:52 pm
Location: Pranburi CITY

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by sargeant »

Ang on a mo

quote steve
the entire energy consumption of the US for 4 million years."
Quote MrP
The ENTIRE global warming is less than six tenths of one degree.
normal peops would say three fifths :roll: :roll: :roll:

so from 1880 ie. 140 years we have used 2,400,000 years :? :? :?

sounds big to me :D :D :D
A Greatfull Guest of Thailand
User avatar
charlesh
Ace
Ace
Posts: 1512
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2008 4:01 am
Location: melbourne/lopburri

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by charlesh »

Yes Steve and this is the bloke with not 1 scientific qualification!

Michael Kelberer's Overview

Current
Business Writer and Consultant at Michael Kelberer Business Communications
Owner; Writer and Consultant at Proposals That Mean Business
Past
Executive Director at Senior Recovery Program
Various at University of Minnesota
Owner at Possibility Thinking (Sole Proprietorship)
see all
Education
University of Minnesota - Carlson School of Management
Haverford College
American Community School
Recommendations
7 people have recommended Michael
Connections
250 connections
Websites
Company Website
Proposals That Mean Business
Blog
Michael Kelberer's Summary

Specialties
Branding platforms, web sites, business proposals, business plans

Michael Kelberer's Experience

Business Writer and Consultant
Michael Kelberer Business Communications
Public Company; Myself Only; Writing and Editing industry
January 2008 – Present (5 years 4 months)

I am a business writer and communications consultant. I help companies and their executives to craft clear, consistent, and compelling messages, delivered to their prospects, customers and stakeholders with power, punch and panache.

I have an MBA and over three decades of real-world business experience, bringing both the talents of a seasoned writer and the ideas and perspectives of a seasoned businessman to bear on every project.

Recent projects have included: Business plans for several area startups, including a semi-finalist in the Minnesota Cup Business Plan Competition; business proposals, the most recent of which went 14-for-14 with the customer review team; branding platforms and web sites for several B2B companies.

Recent clients have included: US Bank, GLS Companies, CBL Commercial Flooring, Americana Bank, ASTRA Women’s Business Alliance, D*Trio Marketing, NAK Retail Management, Aviva USA, Cummins.
Owner; Writer and Consultant
Proposals That Mean Business
June 2011 – Present (1 year 11 months) Greater Minneapolis-St. Paul Area

I create winning proposal packages and finalist presentations for B2B companies with a distinct branding platform.
Executive Director
Senior Recovery Program
2010 – 2011 (1 year)

Various
University of Minnesota
Educational Institution; 10,001+ employees; Higher Education industry
January 2002 – August 2007 (5 years 8 months)

Held various planning, communications and information management positions with the University of Minnesota's National Center for Earth-surface Dynamics and Institute on the Environment.
Owner
Possibility Thinking (Sole Proprietorship)
January 1992 – September 2002 (10 years 9 months)

Small business consulting; business plan development; private placement prospectus development.
Financial Planner
Swenson Anderson Associates
September 1991 – June 2000 (8 years 10 months)

Produced educational brochures explaining sophisticated estate-planning strategies and managed mutual fund portfolio for top Swenson Anderson producer.
Assistant Vice President
US Bank (First Bank System)
Public Company; 10,001+ employees; USB; Banking industry
June 1984 – June 1987 (3 years 1 month)

Managed four computer divisions; was Business Manager for Capital Markets Group
Project/Business Manager
Saudi Aramco
Privately Held; 10,001+ employees; Oil & Energy industry
June 1975 – June 1982 (7 years 1 month)

Project and Business manager on various engineering and construction projects during the Saudi Master Gas Program. Also, programmer and systems analyst.
Michael Kelberer's Skills & Expertise

New Business Development Business plans Business proposals Website plans and content Marketing strategy and materials RFP Responses Stakeholder communications Websites Marketing Strategy Business Planning Proposal Writing Marketing Stakeholder Engagement RFP Media Analysis
Michael Kelberer's Education

University of Minnesota - Carlson School of Management
MBA 4.0, Operations Management/Finance
1982 – 1984

Haverford College
BA, Economics
1969 – 1973

Departmental honors in Economics
American Community School
HS
1963 – 1969
User avatar
STEVE G
Hero
Hero
Posts: 13596
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:50 am
Location: HUA HIN/EUROPE

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by STEVE G »

Yes Steve and this is the bloke with not 1 scientific qualification!
How far was he out?
User avatar
MrPlum
Banned
Banned
Posts: 4568
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2007 6:57 pm

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by MrPlum »

charlesh wrote:Yes Steve and this is the bloke with not 1 scientific qualification!
Not only is he qualified in marketing 'spin', ironically, has also worked for 'Big Oil'.

Project/Business Manager
Saudi AramcoPrivately Held; 10,001+ employees; Oil & Energy industry

On the subject of Scientific credibility, method and bias, it is worthwhile looking at what happens in medical research and the various claims that are made of 'advances' and 'breakthroughs'.

This is the most downloaded document on the PLOS site which publishes medical research... http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/inf ... ed.0020124

'Why Most Published Research Findings Are False'

Basically, every 'discovery', 'advance' and 'breakthrough' in the last 20 years has been... to use the technical term... cobblers. This is supported by the elephant in the room... 'No chuffing CURES'

Climate Scientists, like Global Warming Scientists, see what they want to see and with research money flooding in they are bound to find 'FOR' the proposition since their continued existence depends on it. We know the peer review process was corrupt, from 'Climategate'. We also know that environmental journals who didn't sign up for the warmies, were marginalized.

Anyway, a cheery little number to warm your frozen digits...

User avatar
STEVE G
Hero
Hero
Posts: 13596
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:50 am
Location: HUA HIN/EUROPE

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by STEVE G »

"The current level of radiative forcing, according to the IPCC AR4, is 1.6 watts per square meter (with a range of uncertainty from 0.6 to 2.4). That may not sound like much, Prinn says, until you consider the total land area of the Earth and multiply it out, which gives a total warming effect of about 800 terawatts — more than 50 times the world’s average rate of energy consumption, which is currently about 15 terawatts."

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/expl ... -0309.html
User avatar
charlesh
Ace
Ace
Posts: 1512
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2008 4:01 am
Location: melbourne/lopburri

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by charlesh »

Christ Steve how can you show a figure such as 1.6 with a range of uncertainty of 0.4 to 2.4.? Is that +/- ?
It just reinforces the confusion over this debate when some claim empirical data of ~1 degC +/- 0.01.
Looks like the uncertainty principle should be foremost in this issue ha, ha.
You may know what the temperature is but not where it is going at the same time - sorry Heisenberg!
User avatar
charlesh
Ace
Ace
Posts: 1512
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2008 4:01 am
Location: melbourne/lopburri

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by charlesh »

Thus radiative forcing, measured in watts per square meter of surface, is a direct measure of the impact that recent human activities — including not just greenhouse gases added to the air, but also the impact of deforestation, which changes the reflectivity of the surface — are having on changing the planet’s climate. However, this number also includes any natural effects that may also have changed during that time, such as changes in the sun’s output (which has produced a slight warming effect) and particles spewed into the atmosphere from volcanoes (which generally produce a very short-lived cooling effect, or negative forcing).

Although all of the factors that influence radiative forcing have uncertainties associated with them, one factor overwhelmingly affects the uncertainty: the effects of aerosols (small airborne particles) in the atmosphere. That’s because these effects are highly complex and often contradictory. For example, bright aerosols (like sulfates from coal-burning) are a cooling mechanism, whereas dark aerosols (like black carbon from diesel exhausts) lead to warming. Also, adding sulfate aerosols to clouds leads to smaller but more abundant droplets that increase cloud reflectivity, thus cooling the planet.

Taken from your link Steve. I guess reducing population, banning diesel cars, increasing volcanic, coal fired power stations and individual use of SO4 containing aerosols are the way to go to redress the balance!
sargeant
Deceased
Deceased
Posts: 4055
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:52 pm
Location: Pranburi CITY

Re: Global Warming 2

Post by sargeant »

I am stunned :shock: :shock: :shock:
deforestation
reducing population
He left out reduce urbanisation but i think i posted this in Global warming 1 way back when

just after a certain poster challenged me to do some research and came up with those three as my answer only to be ignored by someone who obviously only researches stuff to prove his own already fixed view which should be changing after
Quote:
It pays to remember that skeptics like Monkton have accepted there has been warming and even conceded that man has been responsible for some of it.] :roll: :roll: :roll:


So it is happening then ??????
A Greatfull Guest of Thailand
Post Reply