Lets say your house is on a street with 20 houses either side 40 in total
lets say it was built 5 years ago
lets say that in the last three weeks there has been 4 burglaries on your street
your neighbour says there is theft and stealing coming down on our street
do you say thats such a short time lets wait for another 3





after all the records of burglaries only started 2 years after this road was built and i am sure there were burglaries before that when it was a rice paddy