Miked
Hope your right
A lot of us retired/pensioners are being hit by the current exchange rate
GBP vs THB
Not wanting to add too much doom and gloom to the arguments but the UK economy is in a pretty dire state and this, coupled with a Government planning to spend its way out of recession with no money in their coffers, does not bode well. Basically UK inc. looks pretty bust at the moment.
I may have this wrong but one of the reasons why the Dollar is so strong is that all the banks and institutions around the world have loan repayment calls and they have to buy dollars to pay back the dollar loans. Therefore the Dollar goes up in value as it's in demand. The GBP is going southwards as the interest rate falls and it becomes unattractive. Ultimately I reckon the Dollar will crash back eventually as the US owes Trillions of Dollars plus a few more, US industry will be wrecked by this recession so no government income to pay back the loan interest, then China and a few other countries will let the dollar go. What better way to beat the old enemy than by financial castration.
I agree that the UK is in for a tough 2009 but I think they are dreaming when they say it will all be over in 2010 and the economy will romp away again. There will be too many casualties, anyone left in work will have big tax rises to feed the government loans and pay for the Olympics in 2012, big city bonuses are dead so there is no tax paid by them, Corporation tax payments etc. will be drastically reduced. This together with the insecurity that everyone will be feeling will ensure recovery does not come easily. Bottom line IMHO is to hold on tight we are in for a tough 5+ years wherever we live or work.
As for the expat incomes, this article does not make good reading:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/pers ... lions.html
I may have this wrong but one of the reasons why the Dollar is so strong is that all the banks and institutions around the world have loan repayment calls and they have to buy dollars to pay back the dollar loans. Therefore the Dollar goes up in value as it's in demand. The GBP is going southwards as the interest rate falls and it becomes unattractive. Ultimately I reckon the Dollar will crash back eventually as the US owes Trillions of Dollars plus a few more, US industry will be wrecked by this recession so no government income to pay back the loan interest, then China and a few other countries will let the dollar go. What better way to beat the old enemy than by financial castration.
I agree that the UK is in for a tough 2009 but I think they are dreaming when they say it will all be over in 2010 and the economy will romp away again. There will be too many casualties, anyone left in work will have big tax rises to feed the government loans and pay for the Olympics in 2012, big city bonuses are dead so there is no tax paid by them, Corporation tax payments etc. will be drastically reduced. This together with the insecurity that everyone will be feeling will ensure recovery does not come easily. Bottom line IMHO is to hold on tight we are in for a tough 5+ years wherever we live or work.
As for the expat incomes, this article does not make good reading:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/pers ... lions.html
"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and then again I just sits" Punch 24th Oct 1906
November 14, 2008 11:47 Unit: Thai Baht Previous Rate
08:15 08:33 09:20 10:58
Foreign Currencies Bank Selling Rates Bank Buying Rates
D/D
&
T/T Notes T/T Export Sight Bill T/Chqs.
&
Chqs. Notes
US DOLLAR $50-$100 USD 35.12 35.29 34.87 34.77 34.77 34.59
US DOLLAR $5-$20 USD1 35.12 35.22 34.87 34.77 34.77 34.15
US DOLLAR $1-2$ USD2 35.12 35.19 34.87 34.77 34.77 33.79
EURO EUR 44.82 45.08 44.25 44.16 44.16 43.905
BRITISH POUND STERLING GBP 52.16 52.58125 51.53125 51.28125 51.28125 50.6325
The above rates are live from Siam commercial bank, as you can see the £ is now at 50 baht for notes and even transfers are at 51.
On the bbc news site the pound is at 1.16 euro and $1.45.
Hope this slide stops soon.
08:15 08:33 09:20 10:58
Foreign Currencies Bank Selling Rates Bank Buying Rates
D/D
&
T/T Notes T/T Export Sight Bill T/Chqs.
&
Chqs. Notes
US DOLLAR $50-$100 USD 35.12 35.29 34.87 34.77 34.77 34.59
US DOLLAR $5-$20 USD1 35.12 35.22 34.87 34.77 34.77 34.15
US DOLLAR $1-2$ USD2 35.12 35.19 34.87 34.77 34.77 33.79
EURO EUR 44.82 45.08 44.25 44.16 44.16 43.905
BRITISH POUND STERLING GBP 52.16 52.58125 51.53125 51.28125 51.28125 50.6325
The above rates are live from Siam commercial bank, as you can see the £ is now at 50 baht for notes and even transfers are at 51.
On the bbc news site the pound is at 1.16 euro and $1.45.
Hope this slide stops soon.
[quote="Wanderlust"]I really can't see the UK government allowing the pound to drop to the level icebear is predicting
Wanderlust,
Government in Uk right now is powerless to stop this freefall,it could spend what little cash reserves we have trying to prop up the pound but that did not work in 87 and it wont now and Darling knows it.The pound has been found out at long last and everyone is dumping it,money managers may buy back in at a much lower rate later but do not hold your breath.As the poster said the baht is trailing the dollar just now and the pound will continue to head south.
Miked is an exceedingly optimistic predictor and I cannot see the baht at 65 next year.However his grasp on financial affairs is excellent but on this occasion I think he is wishing the baht up because that is what he wants.
Currency prediction is like looking in a crystal ball thats fuzzy with snow.I expected dollar to slip to 1.78 to the pound this fourth quarter from a prediction in Jan 2008,most financial analysts went for 2.15 except Leeman,they went for 1.8 and they went broke as well.
More pain ahead chaps,theirs never been a labour government since the war that did not sign off with a sterling crisis.Browns problem is he has an election in 18 months and that is making him do things off the hoof to impress the electorate.I certainly expect to finally repatriate myself in April 2010 to a new government
Wanderlust,
Government in Uk right now is powerless to stop this freefall,it could spend what little cash reserves we have trying to prop up the pound but that did not work in 87 and it wont now and Darling knows it.The pound has been found out at long last and everyone is dumping it,money managers may buy back in at a much lower rate later but do not hold your breath.As the poster said the baht is trailing the dollar just now and the pound will continue to head south.
Miked is an exceedingly optimistic predictor and I cannot see the baht at 65 next year.However his grasp on financial affairs is excellent but on this occasion I think he is wishing the baht up because that is what he wants.
Currency prediction is like looking in a crystal ball thats fuzzy with snow.I expected dollar to slip to 1.78 to the pound this fourth quarter from a prediction in Jan 2008,most financial analysts went for 2.15 except Leeman,they went for 1.8 and they went broke as well.
More pain ahead chaps,theirs never been a labour government since the war that did not sign off with a sterling crisis.Browns problem is he has an election in 18 months and that is making him do things off the hoof to impress the electorate.I certainly expect to finally repatriate myself in April 2010 to a new government
-
JimmyGreaves
- Legend
- Posts: 2923
- Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 5:06 am
- Location: HuaEireHin
Conservative - Osborne fears sterling collapse
Conservative - Osborne fears sterling collapse
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7730803.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7730803.stm
Diplomacy is the ability to tell a man to go to hell so that he looks forward to making the trip
-
JimmyGreaves
- Legend
- Posts: 2923
- Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 5:06 am
- Location: HuaEireHin
It's also just come back to the trendline, which is still bearish for the pound. Gold is the only safe haven IMO.miked wrote:the slight weakening in the baht has nothing to do with the PAD. the baht is tracking the U.S. dollar and it reflects the 800 billion dollar stimulus announced the other day.
miked
[quote="miked"]the slight weakening in the baht has nothing to do with the PAD. the baht is tracking the U.S. dollar and it reflects the 800 billion dollar stimulus announced the other day.
miked[/quote]
On the ball again Miked.
Dollar is expected to track back to 1.5640 against the pound early next week before sterling starts another decline against the dollar that may take it to 1.39.
However long term anarchy in Thailand may detach the baht from its paralell course with the dollar but do not hold out much hope for a Lomu exchange rate in 1997 of 90 to the pound but you never know.
In this period of fiscal turmoil events and exchange rates are moving around 4 times the speed of normal.
I am still a dollar bull within a much shorter time frame as I have just learnt on the news wires that Obama's new Treasury Secretary to replace Paulson favours dollar devaluation back to levels of 9 months ago.
Problem for Uk expats is there is very little to hold the pound where it is as more interest rate cuts and Mcbroons huge and probably wasted borrowing spree can really only debase sterling further
miked[/quote]
On the ball again Miked.
Dollar is expected to track back to 1.5640 against the pound early next week before sterling starts another decline against the dollar that may take it to 1.39.
However long term anarchy in Thailand may detach the baht from its paralell course with the dollar but do not hold out much hope for a Lomu exchange rate in 1997 of 90 to the pound but you never know.
In this period of fiscal turmoil events and exchange rates are moving around 4 times the speed of normal.
I am still a dollar bull within a much shorter time frame as I have just learnt on the news wires that Obama's new Treasury Secretary to replace Paulson favours dollar devaluation back to levels of 9 months ago.
Problem for Uk expats is there is very little to hold the pound where it is as more interest rate cuts and Mcbroons huge and probably wasted borrowing spree can really only debase sterling further
I need a quick lesson on currency futures to take advantage of the inevitable dollar crash. Anyone know how best to play? Surely just sticking with Gold or Oil is the standard hedge.
Also need a country that is doing worse than the pound when Thailand eventually becomes too expensive. Brazil? http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/conve ... it=Convert
Also need a country that is doing worse than the pound when Thailand eventually becomes too expensive. Brazil? http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/conve ... it=Convert
Well, it's been hovering around the low 50s for a while, let's hope it(pound) has found it's bottom and we just have wait for it to creep back up slowly, might be a while and I know I might be being optimistic here, but with any luck it will not decend any further. 
Hopefully I haven't just opened my big, fat mouth and fate decides to remind me that it has a sense of humour.
Hopefully I haven't just opened my big, fat mouth and fate decides to remind me that it has a sense of humour.
Resolve dissolves in alcohol