Weather in Hua Hin & Thailand

[Big Boy]

Yes, very cold.

[Dannie Boy]

I’m my own worst enemy - come rain or shine I normally wear a singlet so on days like today, I feel colder than it really is - I mean 20c in the UK is a normal summer day temperature!!

[Big Boy]

Don't get me wrong, it's nice, but a shock to the system. Yes, I find it amazing that I can feel so cold at 20C

[Nereus]

Humungous high pressure over China(1054 Mb), causing the cold NE airflow that we should of been getting around Christmas time.

[Big Boy]

Long may the Big Freeze last

[PET]

18c outside car going to golf at 7.15am, on ring road to Lakeview

[PeteC]

A bit early for speculation but why not.... It could mean a plentiful rainy season for us here.

Good News for Indian Monsoons: El Nino Not Likely This Year

An El Nino event, which has a negative influence on the Indian monsoon, may never form in the next few months, India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials said on Thursday. It means good news for this year’s monsoon.

Currently, neutral ENSO conditions, neither an El Nino nor a La Nina, are prevailing. IMD officials said a host of factors, other than El Nino, determine the monsoon’s performance.

IMD’s ENSO bulletin released last month said that neutral conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean indicating that a weak El Nino is likely to develop in the coming months and continue for a short period.

A to-be released ENSO bulletin shows that there are chances that El Nino may not form at all before monsoon, D S Pai, head of IMD, Pune’s climate research and services, told TOI on Thursday.

“El Nino has not established as yet. Whatever is the increase in the sea surface temperature over the Pacific may start reducing before the monsoon,” he added.

Forecasts till January 2019 showed a maximum probability for El Nino conditions from January-February-March to March-April-May seasons and its likely decrease thereafter. But the forecast in February 2019 indicates neutral ENSO conditions may continue.

According to the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, in normal, non-El Niño conditions, the trade winds blow to the west along the equator from South America towards Asia in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

These winds pile up warm surface water off Asia, so that the sea surface is about 1/2 meter (11/2 feet) higher at Indonesia than at Ecuador in South America.

The sea surface temperature is about 8°C warmer off the coast of Asia than in the eastern Pacific, due to an upwelling of cold water from deeper levels in east Pacific.

The cooler water off South America is nutrient-rich, supporting high levels of primary productivity, diverse marine ecosystems, and major fisheries.

Clouds and rainfall are found in rising air over the warmest water near Asia, whereas the east Pacific is relatively dry.

This story was originally published in The Times of India https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 891528.cms

[PeteC]

Unpleasant to the extreme and it's only February. I hope the hot season brings frequent thundershowers.
______________

Stay in the shade: Hot and hazy weather ahead
Breaking News February 14, 2019 12:47 By The Nation http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/ ... l/30364111


Bangkok and five vicinity provinces faced two fronts of discomfort on Thursday: hot weather and haze.

The Thai Meteorological Department said the capital city would have the country's highest temperature of 38 degrees Celsius, while the Pollution Control Department (PCD)'s daily update cited 35 areas with levels of particulates smaller than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) beyond safe limits.

The weather bureau said that the high pressure area over upper Thailand was weakening, while the southeasterly wind brought the moisture from the South China Sea to upper Thailand where people would experience the increase in temperature during the daytime. The northeast monsoon over the Gulf and the South was also weakening causing less rain over the South.

Greater Bangkok from 6am on Thursday to 6am on Friday can expect a maximum temperature of 36-38C, while the North and Northeast will see 34-37C and the South 31-36C.

The PCD report said that 35 areas of Greater Bangkok had 51-73 micrograms of PM2.5 per cubic metre of air - rising beyond the safe limit of 50 micrograms - due to the lack of wind and the influence from the high pressure area over upper Thailand.

The peak levels were in the Rama II roadside spot in Bangkok's Bang Kho Laem district at 73 micrograms; the Sathorn district's Khlong Toei area at 64 micrograms and at Wat Thung Don area at 65 micrgrams; the Din Daeng district at 67 micrograms; and the Samut Prakan's Phra Pradaeng district at 65 micrograms.

The PCD also reported that the North had lower PM2.5 levels in all areas but still at unsafe levels such as tambon Sri Phum of Chiang Mai's Muang district with 52 micrograms.

[PeteC]

Winter was nothing as compared to the winter temps of 2017-18. I haven't felt refreshed once going outside in the mornings.

Summer arrives this week, bit of a scorcher
Breaking News February 17, 2019 12:02 By The Nation http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/ ... s/30364265

The temperature in Thailand this summer will be 1-2 degrees Celsius warmer than last year, Meteorological Department director-general Phuwiang Prakam-min said on Saturday.

And it will hit 42-43C in seven provinces in upper Thailand, he added.

Marking summer on the calendar as February 21 to mid-May, Phuwiang said daytime temperatures in March and April would reach 40C in much of the North, Northeast, Central and Eastern regions.

He does not foresee the record set on April 28, 2016, when Mae Hong Son sweltered at 44.6C, being broken.

But Mae Hong Son is one of the seven provinces forecast to reach 42-43C this year, the others being Lampang, Uttaradit, Sukhothai, Tak, Nakhon Sawan and Kanchanaburi.

In the South, the maximum temperature will be 38-39C in Prachuap Khiri Khan, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Yala, Krabi, Trang and Satun, accompanied by occasional rain and waves at sea up to a metre high, Phuwiang said.

Rain will increase towards the end of April and waves will be up to three metres high, he predicted.

The weather in Pattaya in Chon Buri will match that of the South, with a maximum temperature of 35-37C in April.

[PeteC]

Click on below and it should become larger in a separate window. At least it does on my machine.

[Chazz14]

Interesting graphic, but spoiled by the quote that various Met offices are predicting that there's "a 50 per cent chance that 2019 will be the second hottest on record."

Talk about hedging your bets - at least they won't be wrong...!

[PeteC]

The first typhoon of the year in the western Pacific. Seems earlier than usual to me?

phpCwOJ6aPM.jpg (58.76 KiB) Viewed 896 times

[PET]

The last few early mornings when going to walk the dogs the outside temp has been 24 and quite cool enough for me

[PeteC]

Weather Warning
"Summer Storms in upper Thailand"
No. 1 Time Issued : February 25, 2019

The high-pressure system from China will extend to and meet the hot weather over upper Thailand. From 25-26 February, outbreaks of summer storms will be likely in the upper country. Thundershowers, gusty winds and hail are possible to appear in first the Northeast then the North, the Central including Bangkok and its vicinity, and the East regions. Affected provinces are as following:

North Kamphaengphet, Phitsanulok, Phichit, and Phetchabun

Northeast Nong Bua Lamphu, Udon Thani, Khon Kaen, Loei, Chaiyaphum, Nakhon Ratchasima, Buriram, Surin, Si Sa Ket and Ubon Ratchathani

Central Uthai Thani, Nakhon Sawan, Chai Nat, Lop Buri, Saraburi and Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya including Bangkok and its vicinity

East Nakhon Nayok, Prachin Buri, Sa Kaeo and Chachoengsao

Please stay safe from the severe conditions by keeping off from an open area, big trees and unsecured billboards. Farmers are advised to prepare for crop’s damages.

The advisory is in effect on 25 February 2019 at 11.00 a.m.

The next issue will be on 25 February 2019 at 5.00 p.m.

[Nereus]

Grisada to address water crisis at meeting

https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/genera ... recent_box

Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Grisada Boonrach says he will address 76 provincial governors in a teleconference on Monday to find solutions to cope with the drought, forecast to drag on this year.

Mr Grisada said some academics had indicated the drought this year would last longer than in 2014 and 2015, when a critical drought hit, as the country would be affected by El Nino.

The Royal Irrigation Department (RID) has indicated about 24,095 million cubic metres of water is currently kept in dams across the country which is enough to meet supply only until May, he said.

According to him, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha was worried about the drought, which appears to have come earlier this year, and urged state organisations to help people and minimise the impact.

It is not sure how long the threat is likely to last.

The minister said rainmaking operations have now kicked off with the Department of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation having set up 20 base stations for the task.

Local officers were also told to inform farmers to grow less-water-intensive crops and refrain from second rice cultivation, Mr Grisada said.
Farmers have turned to maize cultivation for more than 900 rai of farmland following past efforts to promote less-water-intensive crops, he said.
He said he was concerned about areas out of the irrigation zones, saying provincial authorities were told to compile data of various water resources to determine how much longer water would be available.

"If the rainy season comes one or two months later than usual, there must be more stringent measures about the use and the supply of water," Mr Grisada said.

He said a plan was laid out earlier that rice would be grown on only up to 8 million rai of land this year, but it has now reached 11 million rai.

Director of Regional Irrigation Office 8, Kiattisak Nukaew, said five major dams in Nakhon Ratchasima contain about 505 million cubic metres of water, or 50.16% of their retention capacities.
This level is lower than in previous years, he said.

Meanwhile, Lammat River in tambon Prasuk of Chum Phuang district has nearly dried up and people can now walk across the river.
Villagers said they were short of water for consumption.
.........................................................................................................................
Having past the predicted date of El Nino becoming well established, it seems unlikely that it will be a problem.

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.i ... cember.pdf

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is like tango, it takes two — the ocean and the atmosphere — to complete. This year, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the atmosphere has not yet responded. Therefore, only “ENSO-neutral” conditions have prevailed in the region so far.
Although the stage is set for the tango, ENSO may or may not materialize, or just slightly influence some parts of the region.

The status of El Niño
Slightly above-normal sea surface temperatures that were observed, since mid-August, over some parts of the Pacific have crossed El Niño thresholds as of November 2018. However, the expected effect on atmospheric circulation has not yet materialized.

Over the main theatre of El Niño activity - the equatorial Pacific Ocean - a blend of slightly above- and below-average sea surface temperatures were recorded since August 2018. The westernmost Niño-4 region (close to the South American coast) was the warmest at +0.5°C.


long article..............................................>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>