Spitfire,
So do I, but the British government have already announced that they won't prop the GBP up as has happened in the past.
Maybe Abhisit will weaken the Baht? The export and tourist markets here are hurting already, big time. Let's see.
The UK seems to in the throws of getting the population to spend the country out of trouble, hence cuts in interest rates. Those cuts seem to have an adverse effect on the GBP's value, but the government dosn't seem to care.
It's a dangerous game and someone will always pay at the end of it all. At the moment, it seems to be us ex-pats, wherever they may live in the world.
I'd reckon on a further drop, but I sincerly hope not below 47 odd before things improve.
Any economic experts care to comment on that because I'd be interested to hear your views?
GBP vs THB
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margaretcarnes
- Rock Star
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- Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:28 am
- Location: The Rhubarb Triangle
GBP vs.ThBt
Spot on Lomu - as I've said on another thread Gordo just doesn't seem to care and denies that GB is in recession! Yes - relying on us Brits to 'spend our way out of it' is fine in theory. But many now either can't - due to increased mortgage costs/utility bills etc - or simply don't need to. After all - how often do you really need to replace your kitchen/TV/digital camera?
The Big Spend in the UK is over, and even mega sales aren't cutting it. Especially when some stores just drag out a load of - quite honestly - crap goods masquerading as bargains.
People just don't go and browse sales anymore as they used to. If they really need something they will shop around for it, and are more selective. And that includes flights as well. Despite some reductions there's still not enough incentive for mass bookings to LOS sadly.
As pointed out the French expat bubble has also burst, as has the Spanish one. All down to the Pound.
Should Abhisit devalue the baht? Good point - but my simple economic brain cells are saying why should he? If he truly believes that Thailand can survive its recent problems and recover it's tourist trade naturally - what's the point?
I'm sure there will be much more educated responses to this topic and look forward to them.
The Big Spend in the UK is over, and even mega sales aren't cutting it. Especially when some stores just drag out a load of - quite honestly - crap goods masquerading as bargains.
People just don't go and browse sales anymore as they used to. If they really need something they will shop around for it, and are more selective. And that includes flights as well. Despite some reductions there's still not enough incentive for mass bookings to LOS sadly.
As pointed out the French expat bubble has also burst, as has the Spanish one. All down to the Pound.
Should Abhisit devalue the baht? Good point - but my simple economic brain cells are saying why should he? If he truly believes that Thailand can survive its recent problems and recover it's tourist trade naturally - what's the point?
I'm sure there will be much more educated responses to this topic and look forward to them.
A sprout is for life - not just for Christmas.
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cookmanchef
- Professional
- Posts: 280
- Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:43 am
Governments are currently almost powerless to 'prop-up' or 'devalue' their currencies. the world crisis is such that traders and speculators will overpower any attempts to set a specific level.
It's very painful currently for expats living on a fixed GBP level but the actions currently being taken are correct and will pay off eventually. Brown is largely responsible for the parlous state of our economy because in 10 years of good growth and income he spent the bloody lot! That was the time when plans should have been made for a crisis like we now face.
In my opinion the current pain is a temporary situation and we might as well get to the bottom asap by talking about 0% interest rates. The problems in the US economy and several of our European neighbours are far worse than ours and yet their currencies are relatively strong.
The governments borrowing plans shouldn't scare people too much as we are currently much less burdoned than almost all our Euro friends. Uk borrowing is around 45% of GDP compared with over 60% in France and Germany and over 100% in Italy. Also our flexibility with having our own currency means the government can act quickly in the countries best interests, not true in the Eurozone.
One of the big problems for the Uk is all the 24 hour news channels constantly talking the country down. My personal opinion is that once the crisis bottoms out mid way through next year the UK will be one of the first to start posting positive news. There are still more prospective buyers for property than there are properties for them to live in, we just need the banks to loosen their grip a little, (RBS reinstated 95% mortgages this week).
Tough times for all of us but we all know these things come around every 10 years or so and are soon forgotten. We just have to tighten our belts and get through it.
It's very painful currently for expats living on a fixed GBP level but the actions currently being taken are correct and will pay off eventually. Brown is largely responsible for the parlous state of our economy because in 10 years of good growth and income he spent the bloody lot! That was the time when plans should have been made for a crisis like we now face.
In my opinion the current pain is a temporary situation and we might as well get to the bottom asap by talking about 0% interest rates. The problems in the US economy and several of our European neighbours are far worse than ours and yet their currencies are relatively strong.
The governments borrowing plans shouldn't scare people too much as we are currently much less burdoned than almost all our Euro friends. Uk borrowing is around 45% of GDP compared with over 60% in France and Germany and over 100% in Italy. Also our flexibility with having our own currency means the government can act quickly in the countries best interests, not true in the Eurozone.
One of the big problems for the Uk is all the 24 hour news channels constantly talking the country down. My personal opinion is that once the crisis bottoms out mid way through next year the UK will be one of the first to start posting positive news. There are still more prospective buyers for property than there are properties for them to live in, we just need the banks to loosen their grip a little, (RBS reinstated 95% mortgages this week).
Tough times for all of us but we all know these things come around every 10 years or so and are soon forgotten. We just have to tighten our belts and get through it.
I agree with a lot of your points CMC, but admit have limited fiscal knowledge and I suspect those who keep their jobs in the UK won't feel too much pain. If you have all the luxuries already, other prices are dropping, it seems to me, with the exception of gas, leccy and the like and they will soon.
Petrol is at it's cheapest for about 4 years, you can buy 3 perfectly good work shirts from M&S for 15gbp (that's for all three) and a pair of jeans in the same place for 9.50 and so on. I don't see the UK as such a rip-off place at the moment.
I also suspect that next month will show an increase in the number of mortgages approved for the first time in a long time, as prices have nearly bottomed out and the Govt's incentives to banks works it's way through the system.
None of which will help the expat's in LOS unfortunately.
Petrol is at it's cheapest for about 4 years, you can buy 3 perfectly good work shirts from M&S for 15gbp (that's for all three) and a pair of jeans in the same place for 9.50 and so on. I don't see the UK as such a rip-off place at the moment.
I also suspect that next month will show an increase in the number of mortgages approved for the first time in a long time, as prices have nearly bottomed out and the Govt's incentives to banks works it's way through the system.
None of which will help the expat's in LOS unfortunately.
Talk is cheap
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cookmanchef
- Professional
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I think you are spot on caller, the vast majority of items such as those you mention are now cheaper in the Uk than most places and we have to thank the likes of Tesco and Asda for a lot of that. The flip side to that of course is that are squeezing every last penny out of their suppliers.
The only reason that energy prices will remain high throughout the winter is that successive idiot governments have allowed a foreign monopoly to exist. All the major suppliers in the Uk are French or German owned and they have undoubtedly made a verbal agreement to delay the reduction.
Last month saw the first rise in prospective buyers registering with Estate Agents in almost a year, and again I agree, new mortgage approvals will follow the same trend very soon. I know many people that don't own property would love to see the price crash but it simply will not happen. The headline figures of price crashes occur because the only houses selling are repossessions etc. This totally distorts the real situation that most people will stay put until the banks ease their lending criteria. When I look at Right Move website the prices have barely changed from when I was in the Uk 6 months ago.
Certainly tough for expats now as prices in HH seem to have gone up.
The only reason that energy prices will remain high throughout the winter is that successive idiot governments have allowed a foreign monopoly to exist. All the major suppliers in the Uk are French or German owned and they have undoubtedly made a verbal agreement to delay the reduction.
Last month saw the first rise in prospective buyers registering with Estate Agents in almost a year, and again I agree, new mortgage approvals will follow the same trend very soon. I know many people that don't own property would love to see the price crash but it simply will not happen. The headline figures of price crashes occur because the only houses selling are repossessions etc. This totally distorts the real situation that most people will stay put until the banks ease their lending criteria. When I look at Right Move website the prices have barely changed from when I was in the Uk 6 months ago.
Certainly tough for expats now as prices in HH seem to have gone up.
Sarge,
The shirts and jeans (I bought them) are made in Bangladesh - I just checked. The incredibly good quality/value boy's coat recently purchased for the little one that cost 8gbp in Tesco's was made in China. I guess the main companies have the clout and wherewithal to change suppliers to keep costs down, which they all seem intent on doing to maintain sales.
Caller
The shirts and jeans (I bought them) are made in Bangladesh - I just checked. The incredibly good quality/value boy's coat recently purchased for the little one that cost 8gbp in Tesco's was made in China. I guess the main companies have the clout and wherewithal to change suppliers to keep costs down, which they all seem intent on doing to maintain sales.
Caller
Talk is cheap
Thats true caller NOW
but all of these cheap labour factories are closing down in china india bdesh thailand etc because orders are not coming in from europe or US and unless the exchange rate changes dramatically in favour of the quid those price increases are just around the corner.
Most of the cheap Asian manufacturers were working on very low wages and even smaller margins they are in absolutely no nil zero position to absorb the 25% devaluation
but all of these cheap labour factories are closing down in china india bdesh thailand etc because orders are not coming in from europe or US and unless the exchange rate changes dramatically in favour of the quid those price increases are just around the corner.
Most of the cheap Asian manufacturers were working on very low wages and even smaller margins they are in absolutely no nil zero position to absorb the 25% devaluation
A Greatfull Guest of Thailand
I am the same as you so dont take any notice of me caller.
But of all the crap going on fiscally in the world what i want explained to me is
1... How the f*** does the pound loose 25% against the Baht with all the crap happening here and no sign its going to change
2... How the f*** does the pound keep falling against the dollar when it was US subprime and toxic crap that caused it all in the first place
I can only think that the british merchant Bankers (Cockney ryming slang) must have spent 25% of all the Sterling in the world buying toxic crap from the US
But of all the crap going on fiscally in the world what i want explained to me is
1... How the f*** does the pound loose 25% against the Baht with all the crap happening here and no sign its going to change
2... How the f*** does the pound keep falling against the dollar when it was US subprime and toxic crap that caused it all in the first place
I can only think that the british merchant Bankers (Cockney ryming slang) must have spent 25% of all the Sterling in the world buying toxic crap from the US
A Greatfull Guest of Thailand
i think that U.K. house prices will fall a further 20% this year and another 10% in early 2010. i do not see anything happening to stop this. the recession will not end while house prices are falling. the pound will not recover while we are in recession.
fast forward to summer 2010 and i see interest rates rising significantly to counter act inflation. then the pound will make a comeback.
miked
fast forward to summer 2010 and i see interest rates rising significantly to counter act inflation. then the pound will make a comeback.
miked
I hope so also concerning 2010. 6 month time deposits for the Pound were about 4.5% June to December. Now 1.35% December to June 2009. Next period after that I would expect about .75%. I bought in at 1.82 USD to the Pound and should have sold when it hit 2.00 a few months ago. Alas, now I'm stuck. 6 month interest was around 6.5% when I bought in when the USD was around 4.0%. Hold 'em or fold 'em as they say. Hurry up 2010. 
Pete 
Pete Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Source
