Can't admit to understanding much of that, especially 'de-leveraged', but all this "why is the baht so strong" business seems quite simple to me - if it drops in value the Thai governing class get fewer francs in their Swiss bank accounts.MrPlum wrote:Why the Baht is strong and possibly set to remain so...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Econ ... 5Dk02.html
GBP vs THB
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dtaai-maai
- Hero
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This is the way
Leveraging is where hedge funds/banks take $1 and as if by magic turn it into $200 for gambling purposes. Works well, when house prices are going up but is a bugger if the opposite happens. Before the crash that caused the Great Depression, you could buy $1000 worth of stocks for $100.dtaai-maai wrote:Can't admit to understanding much of that, especially 'de-leveraged', but all this "why is the baht so strong" business seems quite simple to me - if it drops in value the Thai governing class get fewer francs in their Swiss bank accounts.MrPlum wrote:Why the Baht is strong and possibly set to remain so...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Econ ... 5Dk02.html
Deleveraging is where they are having to sell their stocks, gold, etc... to raise cash to pay their margin calls. i.e. when the value of the stock price drops below what they owe, a forced sell (to pay back what they have borrowed) is triggered. The Thai banks apparently bought very little of the toxic paper that's linked to sub-prime.
The financial institutions also need cash to meet their day to day running costs and service any other borrowings they may have.
I made the prediction on 10 march(when the pound was 64 to the baht) that the pound would fall against the baht. 
Check out the thread £ Sterling Up Sh*t Creek? http://www.huahinafterdark.com/forum/a- ... t7975.html
I said:
Check out the thread £ Sterling Up Sh*t Creek? http://www.huahinafterdark.com/forum/a- ... t7975.htmlI said:
Its difficult to say what will happen to sterling at this point but I think this could be a great time to buy Thai stocks.I've been short the pound for a while now. I think sterling could fall a lot
further especially against the baht.
- the uk has a balance of trade deficit; Thailand has a trade surplus. North Sea
oil is running out which will increase the uk's trade deficit.
- the uk's principle export is financial services which is in the doldrums;
Thailand's is food which is booming.
- the level of debt is high in the uk which constrains the bank from putting up
interest rates.
Trying to accurately predict currency movements is impossible, but it would be
prudent if one is living in Thailand to put as much of one's savings in baht as
possible, or at least to get it out of pound sterling.
yabz,
interesting post.
on 10/04/08 cash rate stood at 62.47 baht , siam commercial bank 8.30a.m. i think at that time it was obvious to most readers of this forum that the pound was falling. i’m sure that you are aware that on december 21 2007 I predicted a baht rate of 54 in october 2008. at that point the cash exchange rate was 65. looking back although the prediction was 100% accurate it was a stupid prediction to make because exchange rates are so hard to predict that had you given me odds of 20/1 i wouldn’t have put money on it. with a little judgement and a great amount of luck i was correct.
yes the u.k. has a trade deficit and come the end of march 2009 so will thailand.
these are thai government figures, not mine.
yes north sea oil is in decline but 50% still remains and other areas of the north sea are being explored. the major finds will probably be around the falkland islands. why do you think we fought the war.??? not for the sheep.
thailand has offshore ngv and a small amount of lpg, but no oil.
thailands food was booming and now the price is dropping like a stone. with the general decline in thai exports next year just watch the economy go into deficit.
it may be a good time to buy into the thai stock market and it may not. this is not a world recession, but a slump. predictions range on anything up to 20 years before a full recovery. it is my opinion that the u.k. stock market will recover before the thailand stock market. thailand yet has not felt the effect of the world slow down, but they will.
i will not make my own predictions now regarding exchange rates but i will pass on major worldwide banks and central banks predictions. it is my opinion that all of the bad news for the u.k. economy is now well and truly out in the open and so it is reasonable to assume that sterling has had its fall. cuts in interest rates are expected and have been written in. the pound is currently around $1.60. it is expected to trade between this figure and up to $1.70. the thai central bank is forecasting the baht to weaken against the dollar 10% by end of march 2009. as the pounds forecast is now to remain stable against the dollar it is reasonable to assume that the u.k. pound will increase by 10% against the baht.this would give an exchange rate of 60 baht to the pound at the end of march 09.
one thing i,m not sure about is if you are resident in thailand how are you going short on the pound.?? just curious.
miked
interesting post.
on 10/04/08 cash rate stood at 62.47 baht , siam commercial bank 8.30a.m. i think at that time it was obvious to most readers of this forum that the pound was falling. i’m sure that you are aware that on december 21 2007 I predicted a baht rate of 54 in october 2008. at that point the cash exchange rate was 65. looking back although the prediction was 100% accurate it was a stupid prediction to make because exchange rates are so hard to predict that had you given me odds of 20/1 i wouldn’t have put money on it. with a little judgement and a great amount of luck i was correct.
yes the u.k. has a trade deficit and come the end of march 2009 so will thailand.
these are thai government figures, not mine.
yes north sea oil is in decline but 50% still remains and other areas of the north sea are being explored. the major finds will probably be around the falkland islands. why do you think we fought the war.??? not for the sheep.
thailand has offshore ngv and a small amount of lpg, but no oil.
thailands food was booming and now the price is dropping like a stone. with the general decline in thai exports next year just watch the economy go into deficit.
it may be a good time to buy into the thai stock market and it may not. this is not a world recession, but a slump. predictions range on anything up to 20 years before a full recovery. it is my opinion that the u.k. stock market will recover before the thailand stock market. thailand yet has not felt the effect of the world slow down, but they will.
i will not make my own predictions now regarding exchange rates but i will pass on major worldwide banks and central banks predictions. it is my opinion that all of the bad news for the u.k. economy is now well and truly out in the open and so it is reasonable to assume that sterling has had its fall. cuts in interest rates are expected and have been written in. the pound is currently around $1.60. it is expected to trade between this figure and up to $1.70. the thai central bank is forecasting the baht to weaken against the dollar 10% by end of march 2009. as the pounds forecast is now to remain stable against the dollar it is reasonable to assume that the u.k. pound will increase by 10% against the baht.this would give an exchange rate of 60 baht to the pound at the end of march 09.
one thing i,m not sure about is if you are resident in thailand how are you going short on the pound.?? just curious.
miked
http://www.bahtsold.com/news?id=1002
report on today's trading thai set. it appears to be foreign money leaving the country.
miked
report on today's trading thai set. it appears to be foreign money leaving the country.
miked
Can you point me to the thread where you made that prediction - thanks...miked wrote: i’m sure that you are aware that on december 21 2007 I predicted a baht rate of 54 in october 2008. at that point the cash exchange rate was 65. looking back although the prediction was 100% accurate it was a stupid prediction to make because exchange rates are so hard to predict that had you given me odds of 20/1 i wouldn’t have put money on it. with a little judgement and a great amount of luck i was correct.
I bought japanese yen.one thing i,m not sure about is if you are resident in thailand how are you going short on the pound.?? just curious.
Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2007 10:54 pm Post subject: exchange rates low!
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Please don't shoot the messenger.!!
i have been a little concerned about the strength of the thai baht this last week. i didn't think the fall was the normal up and down that you expect.
american express are giving the following forecast for the thai baht at october 2008.
30 thai baht us dollar.
54 thai baht sterling.
i hope that they have got it wrong. i like most of you depend on sterling in order to live here. its all to do with the credit crunch and the slowdown in the states, europe and the u.k.
as i say this is not my forecast so please don,t slag me off. i,m just trying to warn you of what might happen.
mike
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yabz
please see above. i don't lie as you can see. the dollar forecast is well out as you can see but in view of all that's happened this year, still not bad.
so you are shorting the u.k. pound, not for thai baht but japanese yen.??
are you doing this from thailand or are you a licensed financial trader in the u.k. i don't understand.??
miked
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please don't shoot the messenger.!!
i have been a little concerned about the strength of the thai baht this last week. i didn't think the fall was the normal up and down that you expect.
american express are giving the following forecast for the thai baht at october 2008.
30 thai baht us dollar.
54 thai baht sterling.
i hope that they have got it wrong. i like most of you depend on sterling in order to live here. its all to do with the credit crunch and the slowdown in the states, europe and the u.k.
as i say this is not my forecast so please don,t slag me off. i,m just trying to warn you of what might happen.
mike
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yabz
please see above. i don't lie as you can see. the dollar forecast is well out as you can see but in view of all that's happened this year, still not bad.
so you are shorting the u.k. pound, not for thai baht but japanese yen.??
are you doing this from thailand or are you a licensed financial trader in the u.k. i don't understand.??
miked
Not really SJ. The pound certainly seems due a rally.Super Joe wrote:Interesting stuff MrP, do you (or miked) have any insights on future trend of GBP v THB ? I'm feeling its about right time to buy Sterling, then I read supposed experts saying it'll go down to 40 and stay there for 4 - 5 years!?
Cheers,
SJ
I'm still of the opinion Gold is a good hedge.
http://www.miningweekly.com/article.php?a_id=146301
Indeed...great call!miked wrote: i don't lie as you can see. the dollar forecast is well out as you can see but in view of all that's happened this year, still not bad.
The pound has fallen against the yen even more than against the baht, because of the unwinding of the carry trade. http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=GBP ... =X&a=v&p=sso you are shorting the u.k. pound, not for thai baht but japanese yen.??
I closed my position yesterday.
I use interactivebrokers, but there are many forex traders around...oanda is popular. Its very easy - you just need a computer and a modem...are you doing this from thailand or are you a licensed financial trader in the u.k. i don't understand.??
The Federation of Thailand Industries warned that the recession effects on exports could result in a one million job loss in Thailand due to the global recession over the next several quarters.
Factories are now operating a 5 day instead of a 6 day week due to fewer export orders, which are likely to drop 30% year on year.
The above comments further support the above threads which see the Baht weakening in the New Year.
Factories are now operating a 5 day instead of a 6 day week due to fewer export orders, which are likely to drop 30% year on year.
The above comments further support the above threads which see the Baht weakening in the New Year.
I wonder how this 1.5% bank of england base rate will effect the exchange rate, i have never known a rate cut that big they have said on ITV News "this is the last throw of the dice to stop the U.K going into a deep depression, consumers just arn't spending any money" has anyone got some thoughts on this as we need to transfer some money but we have been holding off because of the piss poor exchage rate.
Kendo.
Kendo.
Is Bangkok a place or a nasty injury.......Eric Morcombe.
Proud to be a Southampton FC Fan.
Proud to be a Southampton FC Fan.
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cookmanchef
- Professional
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- Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:43 am
GBP V's THB
These are very strange times Kendo and whereas normally a big rate cut would weaken sterling, this time it probably won't have much effect. The Fed and the BOJ have cut rates and their currencies have strengthened as they are seen as safe havens.
The UK government is planning a big spending plan on infrastructure projects to stimulate growth, I believe our currency independence gives us a better chance of an early recovery than the eurozone.
It means a hefty chunk of borrowing but our public debt is currently 43.4% of GDP compared to Germany at 65%, France 67% and Italy over 100%!!
The UK is a large importer so they want a relatively strong pound, Thailand needs its export business, however at the moment speculators are in control and governments powerless. My guess is the rate will be a lot more stable now and then start to rise when the UK shows the first signs of recovery next year.
The UK government is planning a big spending plan on infrastructure projects to stimulate growth, I believe our currency independence gives us a better chance of an early recovery than the eurozone.
It means a hefty chunk of borrowing but our public debt is currently 43.4% of GDP compared to Germany at 65%, France 67% and Italy over 100%!!
The UK is a large importer so they want a relatively strong pound, Thailand needs its export business, however at the moment speculators are in control and governments powerless. My guess is the rate will be a lot more stable now and then start to rise when the UK shows the first signs of recovery next year.